Heather Downs Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo
Tract 39095007207 · Lucas County, OH · pop 2,931 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
39095007207 is a census tract in the Heather Downs area of Toledo, OH. It scores 5.4/10 for landlords. It is home to 2,931 residents. 53% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Toledo and the region
Centroid at 41.5966, -83.6264 · click any tract to drill in
Why Heather Downs scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Heather Downs compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 17
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 52%Socioeconomic
- 28%Household composition
- 22%Racial/ethnic minority
- 3%Housing & transportation
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Heather Downs. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.4%Housing insecurity
- 10.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.3%Food insecurity
- 16.3%SNAP enrollment
- 9.2%Transit barriers
- 8.5%No health insurance
- 18.0%Frequent mental distress
- 35.5%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Heather Downs
Cost burden runs 63% here against 41.3% across Lucas County. At $1,549 a month, rents run 72% over what the rest of Toledo commands.
The voucher gap is 46.7%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 9.7/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. The poverty rate is 30%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.
Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. Against the Lucas County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Toledo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
Nationally it ranks #24,859 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 11% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.5/10.
Statewide the OH average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
About tract 39095007207
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095007207?
What is the average rent in tract 39095007207?
What is the poverty rate in tract 39095007207?
How socially vulnerable is tract 39095007207?
Is tract 39095007207 considered part of Heather Downs?
What share of households in tract 39095007207 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 39095007207 compare to Toledo overall?
Was tract 39095007207 historically redlined?
Highest-risk tracts in Toledo
Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.