Neighborhood · Ranked #22,213 of 84,120 nationally

Heather Downs Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo

Tract 39095007207 · Lucas County, OH · pop 2,931 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Tract 39095007207 covers Heather Downs in Toledo in Ohio. Home to 2,931 residents, it scores 6.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 86% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 63% of renter households, a severe level, and 53% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,549 monthly, set against $67,627 in average yearly household income, roughly 27% of income at the averages. Renters make up 11% of occupied homes.

Risk score

5.2

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 7% Stable renters 4% Owners 89%

Tract context

Occupied units1,084

Renter share10.9%

SVI overall0.17

Poverty rate30.3%

Median income$67,627

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Toledo and the region

Centroid at 41.5966, -83.6264 · click any tract to drill in

Why Heather Downs scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Toledo

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.8

State political climate

Ohio legislature & governorship

2.4

Economic stress

30.3% poverty · this tract

7.6

Supply constraint

$1,549 rent vs county FMR

9.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Toledo

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Toledo

4.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Toledo

4.0

How Heather Downs compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 17

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

52%Socioeconomic
28%Household composition
22%Racial/ethnic minority
3%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Heather Downs. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

13.4%Housing insecurity
10.7%Utility-shutoff threat
17.3%Food insecurity
16.3%SNAP enrollment
9.2%Transit barriers
8.5%No health insurance
18.0%Frequent mental distress
35.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Heather Downs

What moves this score most is supply constraint at 9.7/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Toledo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Lucas County average of 5.5 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 17th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 39095007207

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095007207?

Census tract 39095007207 in the Heather Downs neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 39095007207?

Median gross rent is $1,549/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 39095007207?

30.3% of residents in tract 39095007207 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,931.

How socially vulnerable is tract 39095007207?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 17th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 52th, household 28th, minority 22th, housing 3th.

Is tract 39095007207 considered part of Heather Downs?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095007207 fall within Heather Downs (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 39095007207 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 39095007207 compare to Toledo overall?

Tract 39095007207 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 39095007207 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Toledo

Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.