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Neighborhood · Ranked #32,842 of 84,120 nationally

Bayfront Eviction Risk: Moderate , Erie

Tract 42049000901 · Erie County, PA · pop 2,316 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

With a score of 5/10, tract 42049000901 in the Bayfront area of Erie, PA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,316. Against Erie County at 42.3%, 60% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 44% Stable renters 29% Owners 27%
Tract context
Occupied units1,007
Renter share73.0%
SVI overall0.80
Poverty rate11.0%
Median income$27,243

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Bayfront
Very Low
Within parent city
27 th percentile
Rank, 27th percentileLowHigh
#23 of 31 tracts In Erie
Low
Within county
64 th percentile
Rank, 64th percentileLowHigh
#27 of 73 tracts In Erie County
Elevated
Within state
64 th percentile
Rank, 64th percentileLowHigh
#1,245 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Erie and the region

Centroid at 42.1213, -80.1040 · click any tract to drill in

Why Bayfront scores 5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Erie
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
11.0% poverty · this tract
2.7
Supply constraint
$875 rent vs county FMR
2.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Erie
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Erie
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Erie
5.0

How Bayfront compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Bayfront risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.0This tracttract 0009014.4Erieparent city4.3Countyavg tract in county4.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 80

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Bayfront. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Bayfront

34% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Set annual rent against average income of $27,243 and the ratio lands at 39%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

This is renter territory: 73% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.2/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 2.7/10.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.8/10. It sits 0.7 points above the Erie County average of 4.3.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. That is riskier than roughly 61% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.2/10.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $875, close to the Erie average.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 42049000901

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049000901?

Census tract 42049000901 in the Bayfront neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42049000901?

Median gross rent is $875/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42049000901?

11.0% of residents in tract 42049000901 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,316.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42049000901?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 74th, household 78th, minority 44th, housing 81th.
Q5

Is tract 42049000901 considered part of Bayfront?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049000901 fall within Bayfront (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How does tract 42049000901 compare to Erie overall?

Tract 42049000901 scores 5/10, higher than the parent city of Erie at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q7

Was tract 42049000901 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Erie

Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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