Neighborhood · Erie, PA

Bayfront Eviction Risk: Elevated

2 census tracts · pop 5,443 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 6.2/10 · range 5.7–6.6

Bayfront is a white (non-hispanic) neighborhood in Erie with 2 census tracts and a population of 5,443 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 6.2/10 (Elevated tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 54% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 24% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $829/month sits 5% lower than the Erie citywide average ($870).

Risk score

6.2

Elevated

2 tracts · population-weighted

Bayfront vs Erie How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

53.9% +64%

Erie: 32.9%

Average gross rent

$829 -5%

Erie: $870

Average HH income

$36,726 -15%

Erie: $43,397

Poverty rate

20.3% -17%

Erie: 24.6%

Renter share

72.1% +57%

Erie: 45.9%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Bayfront and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 5.7–6.6

Why Bayfront scores 6.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 3.4–3.4 across tracts

3.4

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts

5.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 5.5–5.5 across tracts

5.5

Rent control risk

54% of income on rent · Range 3.5–3.5 across tracts

3.5

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 5.0–5.0 across tracts

5.0

Tenant organizing strength

72% renter households · Range 4.5–4.5 across tracts

4.5

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 5.0–5.0 across tracts

5.0

Economic stress

20.3% below poverty line · Range 2.7–6.8 across tracts

5.1

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 2.1–2.8 across tracts

2.4

Risk score comparison

Bayfront vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Census tracts

2 tracts in Bayfront

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
42049001000	6.6	3,127	49%	$795
42049000901	5.7	2,316	60%	$875

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 72

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 71%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 68%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 47%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 68%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Bayfront

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

450Total filings (sum)
6.63%Avg annual filing rate
8.8%Peak year (2006)
8.82%Latest filed (2006)

Frequently asked

About Bayfront

What is the eviction-risk score for Bayfront?

Bayfront scores 6.2/10 (Elevated tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Bayfront compare to Erie overall?

Bayfront scores 1.4 points higher than Erie overall (4.8/10). Renters spend 54% of income on rent vs 33% citywide. Average rent: $829 vs $870.

What is the average rent in Bayfront?

Average gross rent in Bayfront is $829/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Bayfront residents are renters?

72% of Bayfront households are renter-occupied (vs 46% in Erie). The neighborhood has 5,443 residents.

Is Bayfront a high social-vulnerability area?

Bayfront sits in the 72nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Bayfront have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Bayfront is census tract 42049001000 (score 6.6/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 5.7 to 6.6, a spread of 0.9 points.

How safe is Bayfront for landlords?

Bayfront carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (6.2/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Erie as a whole (4.8/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Bayfront?

Bayfront has 5,254 residents (White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (68.7%), Black (non-Hispanic) (14.4%), Hispanic / Latino (10.4%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Bayfront

6.8 Little Italy 2 tracts · pop 5,683 7 West Bayfront 2 tracts · pop 5,957 6.9 Eastside Eagles 2 tracts · pop 4,585 5.4 East Bayfront 2 tracts · pop 3,306 6.2 Central Eastside 2 tracts · pop 6,841

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Erie

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Bayfront.

6.1 Perry Park 1 tracts · pop 2,250 6.1 Marvintown 1 tracts · pop 2,470 6.1 Central Eastside 2 tracts · pop 6,841 6.4 Lakeside 1 tracts · pop 3,316 5.8 Glenwood Heights 1 tracts · pop 2,898 6.7 Baldwin Park 1 tracts · pop 2,909

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