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Neighborhood · Ranked #6,848 of 84,120 nationally

Bayfront Eviction Risk: Elevated , Erie

Tract 42049001000 · Erie County, PA · pop 3,127 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Tract 42049001000 covers Bayfront in Erie in Pennsylvania. Home to 3,127 residents, it scores 6.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #17,230 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 49% of renter households, a severe level, and 17% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $795 a month while the average household earns $43,750 a year, roughly 22% of income at the averages. Renters make up 71% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
6.6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 35% Stable renters 36% Owners 29%
Tract context
Occupied units1,445
Renter share71.5%
SVI overall0.67
Poverty rate27.3%
Median income$43,750

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Bayfront
Very High
Within parent city
43 th percentile
Rank, 43rd percentileLowHigh
#18 of 31 tracts In Erie
Moderate
Within county
76 th percentile
Rank, 76th percentileLowHigh
#18 of 73 tracts In Erie County
High
Within state
93 th percentile
Rank, 93rd percentileLowHigh
#242 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Erie and the region

Centroid at 42.1181, -80.1033 · click any tract to drill in

Why Bayfront scores 6.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Erie
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
27.3% poverty · this tract
6.8
Supply constraint
$795 rent vs county FMR
2.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Erie
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Erie
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Erie
5.0

How Bayfront compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Bayfront risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.66.6This tracttract 001000Erie: 4.84.8Erieparent cityCounty: 4.94.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 67

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 450Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 6.63%Avg annual filing rate
  • 8.8%Peak (2006)
  • 80Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2006
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 420490010002000: 52 filings (5.18/100 renter HHs)2001: 71 filings (7.07/100 renter HHs)2002: 67 filings (6.67/100 renter HHs)2003: 55 filings (5.48/100 renter HHs)2004: 55 filings (5.48/100 renter HHs)2005: 70 filings (7.71/100 renter HHs)2006: 80 filings (8.82/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 54% over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Bayfront. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Bayfront

What moves this score most is economic stress at 6.8/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Erie eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Erie County average of 5.6 and above the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 67th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 42049001000

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049001000?

Census tract 42049001000 in the Bayfront neighborhood scores 6.6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42049001000?

Median gross rent is $795/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42049001000?

27.3% of residents in tract 42049001000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,127.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42049001000?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 70th, household 62th, minority 49th, housing 59th.
Q5

Is tract 42049001000 considered part of Bayfront?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049001000 fall within Bayfront (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049001000?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 450 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049001000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.63% of renter households, peaking at 8.8% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42049001000 compare to Erie overall?

Tract 42049001000 scores 6.6/10, higher than the parent city of Erie at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42049001000 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Erie

Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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