Bayfront Eviction Risk: Moderate , Erie

This is renter territory: 71% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. The poverty rate is 27%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

The severe-burden share is 17%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Against the Erie County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.5 points.

On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.1/10. Against Erie County at 42.3%, 49% of renters here are cost-burdened. The filing record is not thin: 450 evictions over 7 years of observation.

The worst year on record was 2006, when 8.8% of renter households were served. At $795 a month, rents run 9% under what the rest of Erie commands. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

In a typical year about 6.6% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 76th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the PA average is 4.6, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter. Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $43,750.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.