Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #20,506 of 84,120 nationally
Little Italy Eviction Risk: Moderate , Erie
Tract 42049002000 · Erie County, PA · pop 3,122 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
42049002000 is a census tract in the Little Italy area of Erie, PA. It scores 5.8/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,122. 28% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 28%
Stable renters 33%
Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units1,331
Renter share60.7%
SVI overall0.46
Poverty rate31.4%
Median income$50,839
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
88
th percentile
High
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Erie and the region
Centroid at 42.1085, -80.0925 · click any tract to drill in
Why Little Italy scores 5.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Erie
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
31.4% poverty · this tract
7.9
Supply constraint
$987 rent vs county FMR
3.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Erie
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Erie
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Erie
5.0
How Little Italy compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 46
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 89%Socioeconomic
- 11%Household composition
- 49%Racial/ethnic minority
- 14%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 69%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 290Total filings over 7 yrs
- 6.66%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.7%Peak (2005)
- 46Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Little Italy. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Little Italy
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.2/10. The poverty rate is 31%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
It sits 1.5 points above the Erie County average of 4.3. Running hot, economic stress reads 7.9/10.
The filing record is not thin: 290 evictions over 7 years of observation. Average gross rent is $987, 13% above the Erie average. Filings peaked in 2005 at 7.7% of renter households.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 6.7% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #20,506 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.1/10. Statewide the PA average is 4.6, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 42049002000
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049002000?
Census tract 42049002000 in the Little Italy neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42049002000?
Median gross rent is $987/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42049002000?
31.4% of residents in tract 42049002000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,122.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42049002000?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 46th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 89th, household 11th, minority 49th, housing 14th.
Q5
Is tract 42049002000 considered part of Little Italy?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049002000 fall within Little Italy (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049002000?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 290 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049002000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.66% of renter households, peaking at 7.7% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 42049002000 compare to Erie overall?
Tract 42049002000 scores 5.8/10, higher than the parent city of Erie at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 42049002000 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Erie
Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · PA
Kingtown
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Lakeside
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Eastside Eagles
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Saint Mary
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
West Bayfront
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Bayfront
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Baldwin Park
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Little Italy
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
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