Within neighborhood
60
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #56,146 of 84,120 nationally
Dobson Shores Eviction Risk: Moderate , Mesa
Tract 04013422221 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,139 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Census tract 04013422221 sits in the Dobson Shores neighborhood of Mesa, Arizona. It has a population of 4,139 and an eviction-risk score of 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). 44% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 17% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $1,436/month against a median household income of $74,279 — roughly 23% rent-to-income at the medians.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22%
Stable renters 28%
Owners 50%
Tract context
Occupied units2,121
Renter share50.4%
SVI overall0.31
Poverty rate10.2%
Median income$74,279
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
36
th percentile
Low
Within county
31
th percentile
Low
Within state
42
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.3716, -111.8694 · click any tract to drill in
Why Dobson Shores scores 4.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
10.2% poverty · this tract
2.6
Supply constraint
$1,436 rent vs county FMR
2.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Dobson Shores compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 31
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 41%Socioeconomic
- 7%Household composition
- 61%Racial/ethnic minority
- 43%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,064Total filings over 5 yrs
- 40.88%Avg annual filing rate
- 63.6%Peak (2001)
- 171Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 51% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Dobson Shores. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.1%Housing insecurity
- 6.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.9%Food insecurity
- 9.5%SNAP enrollment
- 8.2%Transit barriers
- 10.9%No health insurance
- 16.4%Frequent mental distress
- 27.0%Any disability
Frequently asked
About tract 04013422221
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013422221?
Census tract 04013422221 in the Dobson Shores neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013422221?
Median gross rent is $1,436/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013422221?
10.2% of residents in tract 04013422221 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,139.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013422221?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 31th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 41th, household 7th, minority 61th, housing 43th.
Q5
Is tract 04013422221 considered part of Dobson Shores?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013422221 fall within Dobson Shores (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013422221?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,064 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013422221 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 40.88% of renter households, peaking at 63.6% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013422221 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.4% also reported utility shutoff threats — a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013422221 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013422221 scores 4.8/10 — higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04013421902
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Fuller Ranch
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
04013422107
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Fuller Ranch
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013522802
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
McQueen
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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