Within neighborhood
67
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Ocotillo Eviction Risk: Lower , Chandler
Tract 04013816002 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,647 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
Tract 04013816002 sits in the Ocotillo area of Gilbert eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3/10. It is home to 4,647 residents. The severe-burden share is 55%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 6%
Owners 87%
Tract context
Occupied units1,190
Renter share13.7%
SVI overall0.04
Poverty rate1.3%
Median income$165,962
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
47
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
2
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
40
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chandler and the region
Centroid at 33.2469, -111.7276 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ocotillo scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Chandler
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
1.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chandler
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chandler
1.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chandler
2.0
How Ocotillo compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 4
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 6%Socioeconomic
- 41%Household composition
- 39%Racial/ethnic minority
- 2%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Ocotillo. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.4%Housing insecurity
- 3.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.7%Food insecurity
- 4.0%SNAP enrollment
- 4.5%Transit barriers
- 5.6%No health insurance
- 12.9%Frequent mental distress
- 18.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ocotillo
What pushes it up most is supply constraint at 10/10. Average gross rent is $3,501, 66% above the Gilbert average. The voucher gap is 79.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10.
Against Maricopa County at 46.0%, 55% of renters here are cost-burdened. Disability prevalence runs 18.9% against 31.5% nationally. Food insecurity runs 6.7% against 17.8% nationally.
Against the Maricopa County average of 3.7, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.7 points. On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Only 14% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013816002
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013816002?
Census tract 04013816002 in the Ocotillo neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013816002?
Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013816002?
1.3% of residents in tract 04013816002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,647.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013816002?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 4th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 6th, household 41th, minority 39th, housing 2th.
Q5
Is tract 04013816002 considered part of Ocotillo?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013816002 fall within Ocotillo (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 04013816002 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 04013816002 compare to Chandler overall?
Tract 04013816002 scores 3/10, right in line with the parent city of Chandler at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chandler eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chandler
Top eight tracts in Chandler ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
The Bridges at Gilbert
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Gilbert Ranch
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
04013422305
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
McQueen
3.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Val Vista Lakes
3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Gilbert Ranch
3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
04013815601
3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Sunview
3
/ 10 · Low
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