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Neighborhood · Chandler, AZ

Ocotillo Eviction Risk: Lower

4 census tracts · pop 17,325 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3/10 · range 3–3

Ocotillo is a 4-tract neighborhood of Chandler, AZ, population 17,325. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 3/10, in the Lower tier. The voucher gap is 39.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears.

At $2,712 a month, rents sit 43% over what the rest of Chandler commands. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10.

Cost burden runs 39% against 28.4% citywide, putting Ocotillo 10.5% over its own city. Severe burden reaches 25%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.

On the softer side is economic stress, at 1.1/10. Well under the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength, at 1.7/10.

The filing record is not thin: 11 evictions logged in this tract. SNAP participation is 5.3% of households versus 15.2% nationally.

4.1% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, below a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Filing activity peaked in 2001 at 4.2% of renter households.

The most recent observed rate, 0.9% in 2005, is well off that peak. Among the 34 mapped neighborhoods of Chandler, it ranks #10 by risk, the upper third.

At 8% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out.

With little internal variation, 3/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score
3
Lower
4 tracts · population-weighted
Ocotillo vs Chandler How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
38.9% +37%
Chandler: 28.4%
Average gross rent
$2,712 +43%
Chandler: $1,902
Average HH income
$167,907 +62%
Chandler: $103,691
Poverty rate
3.0% -61%
Chandler: 7.7%
Renter share
7.9% -77%
Chandler: 35.0%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Ocotillo and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 4 tracts span score 3–3

Why Ocotillo scores 3

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts
2.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts
5.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 2.5–3.0 across tracts
2.7
Rent control risk
39% of income on rent · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
8% renter households · Range 1.5–2.0 across tracts
1.7
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 2.0–2.0 across tracts
2.0
Economic stress
3.0% below poverty line · Range 1.0–1.4 across tracts
1.1
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 6.9–10.0 across tracts
8.1
Risk score comparison

Ocotillo vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Ocotillo score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Ocotillo: 3.03.0OcotilloNeighborhoodParent city: 3.23.2Parent cityhost cityState: 3.63.6Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.15.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Ocotillo?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 0 points from 3 to 3. Tracts are relatively uniform, so conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

4 tracts in Ocotillo

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
04013813000 3 5,793 19% $2,418
04013816002 3 4,647 55% $3,501
04013816005 3 4,201 36% $2,492
04013816003 3 2,684 60% $2,327
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 12

Pop-weighted across 4 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 11%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 51%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 51%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 10%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Ocotillo

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 11Total filings (sum)
  • 1.44%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.2%Peak year (2001)
  • 0.91%Latest filed (2005)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Ocotillo

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Ocotillo

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Ocotillo?

Ocotillo scores 3/10 (Lower tier) across 4 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Ocotillo compare to Chandler overall?

Ocotillo scores 0.2 points lower than Chandler overall (3.2/10). Renters spend 39% of income on rent vs 28% citywide. Average rent: $2,712 vs $1,902.
Q3

What is the average rent in Ocotillo?

Average gross rent in Ocotillo is $2,712/month (pop-weighted across 4 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Ocotillo residents are renters?

8% of Ocotillo households are renter-occupied (vs 35% in Chandler). The neighborhood has 17,325 residents.
Q5

Is Ocotillo a high social-vulnerability area?

Ocotillo sits in the 12th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Ocotillo have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Ocotillo is census tract 04013813000 (score 3/10). Across the 4 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3 to 3, a spread of 0 points.
Q7

How safe is Ocotillo for landlords?

Ocotillo carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3/10). Pop-weighted across 4 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Chandler as a whole (3.2/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Ocotillo?

Ocotillo has 18,103 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (64.3%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (17.3%), Hispanic / Latino (10%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Ocotillo

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Chandler

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Ocotillo.

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