La Costa Eviction Risk: Moderate , Carlsbad

The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. It sits 1.8 points below the San Diego County average of 7.6.

Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.1/10. Average gross rent is $3,501, 25% above the Carlsbad average. The voucher gap is 21.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

Cost burden runs 45% here against 52.5% across San Diego County. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.6/10.

Adults with no health insurance runs 2.9% against 11.3% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

That is riskier than roughly 76% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 19% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.7 points cooler. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.