Neighborhood · Ranked #10,320 of 84,120 nationally

Shelltown Eviction Risk: Elevated , San Diego

Tract 06073022000 · San Diego, CA · pop 4,336 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

Census tract 06073022000 covers part of the Shelltown area of National City, CA, and scores 7.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1.1/10.

Risk score

7.5

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 43% Stable renters 41% Owners 16%

Tract context

Occupied units1,619

Renter share83.9%

SVI overall0.94

Poverty rate7.0%

Median income$66,801

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across San Diego and the region

Centroid at 32.6795, -117.0869 · click any tract to drill in

Why Shelltown scores 7.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from San Diego

6.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.1

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

7.0% poverty · this tract

1.7

Supply constraint

$1,743 rent vs county FMR

1.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from San Diego

6.1

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from San Diego

4.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from San Diego

5.7

How Shelltown compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 94

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

78%Socioeconomic
90%Household composition
87%Racial/ethnic minority
95%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Shelltown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

18.2%Housing insecurity
7.8%Utility-shutoff threat
22.3%Food insecurity
17.7%SNAP enrollment
10.7%Transit barriers
12.7%No health insurance
16.4%Frequent mental distress
28.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Shelltown

The severe-burden share is 26%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. 84% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.7/10.

Running cool, court filing pressure reads 2.7/10. That is riskier than roughly 88% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.4/10. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. 51% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.

It tracks the San Diego County average of 7.6 closely. Average gross rent is $1,743, close to the National City average.

Annual rent works out to 31% of average household income of $66,801.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06073022000

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073022000?

Census tract 06073022000 in the Shelltown neighborhood scores 7.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06073022000?

Median gross rent is $1,743/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06073022000?

7.0% of residents in tract 06073022000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,336.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06073022000?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 94th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 78th, household 90th, minority 87th, housing 95th.

Is tract 06073022000 considered part of Shelltown?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073022000 fall within Shelltown (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06073022000 struggle to pay rent?

About 18.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06073022000 compare to San Diego overall?

Tract 06073022000 scores 7.5/10, lower than the parent city of San Diego at 8.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Diego eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Diego

Top eight tracts in San Diego ranked by composite eviction-risk score.