Neighborhood · Ranked #11,988 of 84,120 nationally

Shelltown Eviction Risk: Elevated , San Diego

Tract 06073003800 · San Diego, CA · pop 9,630 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi

Census tract 06073003800 covers part of the Shelltown area of San Diego, CA, and scores 7.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 9,630 residents. The severe-burden share is 100%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

7.2

Elevated

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 100% Stable renters 0% Owners 0%

Tract context

Occupied units16

Renter share100.0%

SVI overall0.25

Poverty rate0.0%

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across San Diego and the region

Centroid at 32.6808, -117.1257 · click any tract to drill in

Why Shelltown scores 7.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from San Diego

7.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.1

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

0.0% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

tract rent vs county FMR

5.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from San Diego

8.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

8.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from San Diego

7.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from San Diego

7.5

How Shelltown compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 25

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

35%Socioeconomic
0%Household composition
70%Racial/ethnic minority
76%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
20%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Shelltown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

35.6%Housing insecurity
26.3%Utility-shutoff threat
53.7%Food insecurity
62.8%SNAP enrollment
34.9%Transit barriers
17.2%No health insurance
31.1%Frequent mental distress
46.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Shelltown

Cost burden runs 100% here against 52.5% across San Diego County. This is renter territory: 100% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

Housing insecurity runs 35.6% against 14.2% nationally. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 26.3% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10. This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for San Diego. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

That is riskier than roughly 86% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 3.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

It tracks the San Diego County average of 7.6 closely.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 06073003800

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073003800?

Census tract 06073003800 in the Shelltown neighborhood scores 7.2/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06073003800?

0.0% of residents in tract 06073003800 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 9,630.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06073003800?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 25th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 35th, household 0th, minority 70th, housing 76th.

Is tract 06073003800 considered part of Shelltown?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073003800 fall within Shelltown (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06073003800 struggle to pay rent?

About 35.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 26.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06073003800 compare to San Diego overall?

Tract 06073003800 scores 7.2/10, lower than the parent city of San Diego at 8.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Diego eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 06073003800 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 20% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Diego

Top eight tracts in San Diego ranked by composite eviction-risk score.