Stockton Eviction Risk: High

SNAP participation runs 38.8% against 15.2% nationally. Annualized rent equals 43% of average household income of $29,697, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.9/10. 85% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.1/10.

At $1,064 a month, rents run 33% under what the rest of Stockton commands. It sits 1.7 points above the San Joaquin County average of 6.8.

The poverty rate is 26%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 17.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Stockton. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.