Census Tract · Ranked #13,812 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 06099000506 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 4,492 · 71% of tract blocks fall in Modesto

06099000506 is a census tract in Modesto, CA. It scores 6.8/10 for landlords. Severe burden reaches 29%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score

6.8

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 22% Stable renters 22% Owners 56%

Tract context

Occupied units1,887

Renter share43.3%

SVI overall0.87

Poverty rate10.9%

Median income$69,367

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.7002, -121.0036 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 6.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

10.9% poverty · this tract

2.7

Supply constraint

$1,697 rent vs county FMR

5.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 87

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

74%Socioeconomic
93%Household composition
69%Racial/ethnic minority
81%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

14.9%Housing insecurity
7.9%Utility-shutoff threat
16.9%Food insecurity
16.2%SNAP enrollment
9.4%Transit barriers
10.4%No health insurance
18.4%Frequent mental distress
35.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10. On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10.

Running cool, economic stress reads 2.7/10. On the national scale it lands near the 84th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Social vulnerability reads 8.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

50% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. It tracks the Stanislaus County average of 6.5 closely. Average gross rent is $1,697, close to the Modesto average.

Annual rent works out to 29% of average household income of $69,367. 43% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099000506

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099000506?

Census tract 06099000506 in Modesto scores 6.8/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099000506?

Median gross rent is $1,697/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099000506?

10.9% of residents in tract 06099000506 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,492.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099000506?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 74th, household 93th, minority 69th, housing 81th.

What share of households in tract 06099000506 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099000506 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099000506 scores 6.8/10, right in line with the parent city of Modesto at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.