Modesto Eviction Risk: Elevated

The severe-burden share is 24%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10.

At $1,217 a month, rents run 28% under what the rest of Modesto commands. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.8/10. That is riskier than roughly 82% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Rent consumes only 18% of average household income of $83,036, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 0.9 points cooler. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

It tracks the Stanislaus County average of 6.5 closely. 46% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.