Census Tract · Ranked #12,481 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 06099001200 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 3,837

With a score of 7.1/10, tract 06099001200 in Modesto, CA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,837 residents. The severe-burden share is 41%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

7.1

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 36% Stable renters 22% Owners 42%

Tract context

Occupied units1,641

Renter share58.3%

SVI overall0.57

Poverty rate14.3%

Median income$73,094

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6497, -120.9942 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 7.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

14.3% poverty · this tract

3.6

Supply constraint

$1,439 rent vs county FMR

4.2

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 57

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

66%Socioeconomic
27%Household composition
57%Racial/ethnic minority
55%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

15.8%Housing insecurity
9.0%Utility-shutoff threat
18.3%Food insecurity
19.1%SNAP enrollment
10.4%Transit barriers
10.1%No health insurance
19.8%Frequent mental distress
34.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

Against Stanislaus County at 47.5%, 62% of renters here are cost-burdened. What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10.

Average gross rent is $1,439, 15% below the Modesto average. On the high side, housing-court posture reads 7/10.

Nationally it ranks #12,481 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. It tracks the Stanislaus County average of 6.5 closely.

Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $73,094. 58% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099001200

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099001200?

Census tract 06099001200 in Modesto scores 7.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099001200?

Median gross rent is $1,439/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099001200?

14.3% of residents in tract 06099001200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,837.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099001200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 57th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 66th, household 27th, minority 57th, housing 55th.

What share of households in tract 06099001200 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099001200 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099001200 scores 7.1/10, higher than the parent city of Modesto at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.