Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #3,082 of 84,120 nationally
Shackelford Eviction Risk: High , Modesto
Tract 06099002402 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 5,318 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
With a score of 9.3/10, tract 06099002402 in the Shackelford area of Bret Harte, CA reads high for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,318 residents. Severe burden reaches 45%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
9.3
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 34%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 36%
Tract context
Occupied units1,201
Renter share63.5%
SVI overall0.91
Poverty rate41.5%
Median income$51,458
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
100
th percentile
Very High
Within state
85
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Modesto and the region
Centroid at 37.6013, -121.0075 · click any tract to drill in
Why Shackelford scores 9.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Modesto
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
41.5% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$1,354 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Modesto
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Modesto
9.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Modesto
9.6
How Shackelford compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 91
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 97%Socioeconomic
- 88%Household composition
- 95%Racial/ethnic minority
- 53%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Shackelford. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 34.1%Housing insecurity
- 18.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 44.3%Food insecurity
- 43.8%SNAP enrollment
- 21.9%Transit barriers
- 29.1%No health insurance
- 22.5%Frequent mental distress
- 46.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Shackelford
The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10. It sits 2.8 points above the Stanislaus County average of 6.5. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.7/10.
The poverty rate is 42%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 9.6/10.
Housing insecurity runs 34.1% against 14.2% nationally. Disability prevalence runs 46.8% against 31.5% nationally. Cost burden runs 53% here against 47.5% across Stanislaus County.
That is riskier than roughly 96% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.2/10.
Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.8 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,354, close to the Bret Harte average.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 06099002402
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099002402?
Census tract 06099002402 in the Shackelford neighborhood scores 9.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 06099002402?
Median gross rent is $1,354/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 06099002402?
41.5% of residents in tract 06099002402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,318.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 06099002402?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 88th, minority 95th, housing 53th.
Q5
Is tract 06099002402 considered part of Shackelford?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06099002402 fall within Shackelford (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 06099002402 struggle to pay rent?
About 34.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 18.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 06099002402 compare to Modesto overall?
Tract 06099002402 scores 9.3/10, higher than the parent city of Modesto at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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