Neighborhood · Ranked #12,919 of 84,120 nationally

Shackelford Eviction Risk: Elevated , Modesto

Tract 06099002303 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 5,792 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi

06099002303 is a census tract in the Shackelford area of Modesto, CA. It scores 7/10 for landlords. It is home to 5,792 residents. Severe burden reaches 43%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 21% Stable renters 13% Owners 66%

Tract context

Occupied units1,182

Renter share34.3%

SVI overall0.81

Poverty rate11.3%

Median income$64,389

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6066, -121.0135 · click any tract to drill in

Why Shackelford scores 7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

11.3% poverty · this tract

2.8

Supply constraint

$1,613 rent vs county FMR

5.3

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Shackelford compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 81

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

87%Socioeconomic
54%Household composition
86%Racial/ethnic minority
66%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Shackelford. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

27.2%Housing insecurity
13.9%Utility-shutoff threat
33.0%Food insecurity
30.3%SNAP enrollment
16.5%Transit barriers
22.0%No health insurance
20.5%Frequent mental distress
38.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Shackelford

Against Stanislaus County at 47.5%, 61% of renters here are cost-burdened. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10.

Food insecurity runs 33.0% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 30.3% against 15.2% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10.

Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 2.8/10. Nationally it ranks #12,919 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.3/10. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. It tracks the Stanislaus County average of 6.5 closely.

Average gross rent is $1,613, close to the Modesto average. Annual rent works out to 30% of average household income of $64,389.

34% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099002303

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099002303?

Census tract 06099002303 in the Shackelford neighborhood scores 7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099002303?

Median gross rent is $1,613/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099002303?

11.3% of residents in tract 06099002303 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,792.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099002303?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 81th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 87th, household 54th, minority 86th, housing 66th.

Is tract 06099002303 considered part of Shackelford?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06099002303 fall within Shackelford (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06099002303 struggle to pay rent?

About 27.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099002303 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099002303 scores 7/10, higher than the parent city of Modesto at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.