Modesto Eviction Risk: Elevated

The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.1/10. 24% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.3/10. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10. The voucher gap is 16.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

That is riskier than roughly 78% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 7.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.5 points cooler. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Stanislaus County average of 6.5 closely.

Average gross rent is $1,822, close to the Modesto average. Annual rent works out to 29% of average household income of $74,708.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.