Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Ortega Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , Jacksonville

Tract 12031002300 · Duval, FL · pop 1,918 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi

12031002300 is a census tract in the Ortega Forest area of Jacksonville, FL. It scores 3/10 for landlords. It is home to 1,918 residents. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9% Stable renters 10% Owners 81%
Tract context
Occupied units970
Renter share18.6%
SVI overall0.17
Poverty rate3.1%
Median income$105,263

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 4 tracts In Ortega Forest
Very Low
Within parent city
37 th percentile
Rank, 37th percentileLowHigh
#130 of 206 tracts In Jacksonville
Low
Within county
28 th percentile
Rank, 28th percentileLowHigh
#158 of 218 tracts In Duval
Low
Within state
28 th percentile
Rank, 28th percentileLowHigh
#3,704 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Jacksonville and the region

Centroid at 30.2827, -81.7145 · click any tract to drill in

Why Ortega Forest scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Jacksonville
3.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
3.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,138 rent vs county FMR
1.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Jacksonville
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Jacksonville
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Jacksonville
3.0

How Ortega Forest compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Ortega Forest risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.0This tracttract 0023003.4Jacksonvilleparent city3.7Countyavg tract in county4.1Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 17

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 43Total filings over 10 yrs
  • 1.65%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.3%Peak (2009)
  • 2Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2002 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 12031002300
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 10 months.

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 14Total filings 2020-21
  • 0.2Avg monthly (observed)
  • 0.3Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 0.65×Ratio to baseline
Monthly filings 2020–2021 2020-01-01 to 2026-05-01
Monthly eviction filings vs pre-pandemic baseline

Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Jacksonville, FL as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Ortega Forest. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Ortega Forest

Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.5/10.

At $1,138 a month, rents run 22% under what the rest of Jacksonville commands. The filing record is not thin: 43 evictions over 10 years of observation.

It sits 0.7 points below the Duval County average of 3.7. The worst year on record was 2009, when 3.3% of renter households were served. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

In a typical year about 1.6% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Only 19% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 2.6/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Against average income of $105,263, annual rent is just 13%. Statewide the FL average is 4.1, so this tract runs 1.1 points cooler.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 12031002300

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12031002300?

Census tract 12031002300 in the Ortega Forest neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12031002300?

Median gross rent is $1,138/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12031002300?

3.1% of residents in tract 12031002300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,918.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12031002300?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 17th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 15th, household 45th, minority 12th, housing 26th.
Q5

Is tract 12031002300 considered part of Ortega Forest?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12031002300 fall within Ortega Forest (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12031002300?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 43 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 12031002300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.65% of renter households, peaking at 3.3% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

Did eviction filings in tract 12031002300 drop during COVID?

Pandemic-era filings ran 0.65× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Jacksonville eviction risk, FL), 2020-2021.
Q8

How does tract 12031002300 compare to Jacksonville overall?

Tract 12031002300 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Jacksonville at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Jacksonville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 12031002300 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 9% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Jacksonville

Top eight tracts in Jacksonville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related