Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #63,481 of 84,120 nationally
Ortega Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , Jacksonville
Tract 12031002300 · Duval, FL · pop 1,918 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
For landlords sizing up the Ortega Forest neighborhood of Jacksonville, census tract 12031002300 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of 4.5/10. It lands near the 24th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 47% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 7% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,138 a month against an average household income of $105,263 a year, roughly 13% of income at the averages. Renters make up 19% of occupied homes.
Risk score
2.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 10%
Owners 81%
Tract context
Occupied units970
Renter share18.6%
SVI overall0.17
Poverty rate3.1%
Median income$105,263
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
15
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
18
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
32
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Jacksonville and the region
Centroid at 30.2827, -81.7145 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ortega Forest scores 2.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Jacksonville
3.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
3.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,138 rent vs county FMR
1.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Jacksonville
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Jacksonville
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Jacksonville
3.0
How Ortega Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 17
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 15%Socioeconomic
- 45%Household composition
- 12%Racial/ethnic minority
- 26%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 43%Grade B
- 18%Grade C
- 9%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 43Total filings over 10 yrs
- 1.65%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.3%Peak (2009)
- 2Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 10 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 14Total filings 2020-21
- 0.2Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.3Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.65×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Jacksonville, FL as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Ortega Forest. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ortega Forest
What moves this score most is housing court bias at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Jacksonville eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Duval County average of 4.8 and below the Florida statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 17th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
Part of this tract, about 9% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was B ("Still Desirable"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 12031002300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12031002300?
Census tract 12031002300 in the Ortega Forest neighborhood scores 2.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12031002300?
Median gross rent is $1,138/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12031002300?
3.1% of residents in tract 12031002300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,918.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12031002300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 17th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 15th, household 45th, minority 12th, housing 26th.
Q5
Is tract 12031002300 considered part of Ortega Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12031002300 fall within Ortega Forest (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12031002300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 43 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 12031002300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.65% of renter households, peaking at 3.3% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12031002300 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.65× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Jacksonville eviction risk, FL), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12031002300 compare to Jacksonville overall?
Tract 12031002300 scores 2.7/10, right in line with the parent city of Jacksonville at 2.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Jacksonville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 12031002300 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 9% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Jacksonville
Top eight tracts in Jacksonville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · FL
LaVilla
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
12031002801
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
12031002802
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
LaVilla
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
Brentwood
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
Tallulah-North Shore
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
12031011000
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
Riverside
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
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