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Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally

Ortega Forest Eviction Risk: Moderate , Jacksonville

Tract 12031013404 · Duval, FL · pop 3,438 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Census tract 12031013404 covers part of the Ortega Forest area of Jacksonville, FL, and scores 4.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,438 residents. Severe burden reaches 39%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 45% Stable renters 17% Owners 38%
Tract context
Occupied units1,587
Renter share61.2%
SVI overall0.68
Poverty rate18.7%
Median income$47,109

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 4 tracts In Ortega Forest
Elevated
Within parent city
73 th percentile
Rank, 73rd percentileLowHigh
#56 of 206 tracts In Jacksonville
Elevated
Within county
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#55 of 218 tracts In Duval
High
Within state
70 th percentile
Rank, 70th percentileLowHigh
#1,528 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Jacksonville and the region

Centroid at 30.2526, -81.7198 · click any tract to drill in

Why Ortega Forest scores 4.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Jacksonville
3.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
18.7% poverty · this tract
4.7
Supply constraint
$1,138 rent vs county FMR
1.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Jacksonville
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Jacksonville
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Jacksonville
3.0

How Ortega Forest compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Ortega Forest risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.6This tracttract 0134043.4Jacksonvilleparent city3.7Countyavg tract in county4.1Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 68

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,160Total filings over 10 yrs
  • 17.70%Avg annual filing rate
  • 24.8%Peak (2013)
  • 95Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2002 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 12031013404
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 10 months.

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 562Total filings 2020-21
  • 7.3Avg monthly (observed)
  • 10.4Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 0.70×Ratio to baseline
Monthly filings 2020–2021 2020-01-01 to 2026-05-01
Monthly eviction filings vs pre-pandemic baseline

Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Jacksonville, FL as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Ortega Forest. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Ortega Forest

roughly three in four of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Duval County average of 49.2%. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.5/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.

At $1,138 a month, rents run 22% under what the rest of Jacksonville commands. The poverty rate is 19%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

The filing record is not thin: 1,160 evictions over 10 years of observation. It sits 0.9 points above the Duval County average of 3.7. The worst year on record was 2013, when 24.8% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 17.7% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #39,308 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 12031013404

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12031013404?

Census tract 12031013404 in the Ortega Forest neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12031013404?

Median gross rent is $1,138/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 73% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12031013404?

18.7% of residents in tract 12031013404 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,438.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12031013404?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 68th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 16th, minority 66th, housing 73th.
Q5

Is tract 12031013404 considered part of Ortega Forest?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12031013404 fall within Ortega Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12031013404?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,160 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 12031013404 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 17.70% of renter households, peaking at 24.8% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

Did eviction filings in tract 12031013404 drop during COVID?

Pandemic-era filings ran 0.70× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Jacksonville eviction risk, FL), 2020-2021.
Q8

How does tract 12031013404 compare to Jacksonville overall?

Tract 12031013404 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Jacksonville at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Jacksonville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Jacksonville

Top eight tracts in Jacksonville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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