Neighborhood · Jacksonville, FL

Ortega Forest Eviction Risk: Moderate

4 census tracts · pop 11,175 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.1/10 · range 2.7–4.7

Ortega Forest is a white (non-hispanic) neighborhood in Jacksonville with 4 census tracts and a population of 11,175 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 4.1/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 62% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 31% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,127/month sits 23% lower than the Jacksonville citywide average ($1,465).

Risk score

4.1

Moderate

4 tracts · population-weighted

Ortega Forest vs Jacksonville How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

61.7% +88%

Jacksonville: 32.8%

Average gross rent

$1,127 -23%

Jacksonville: $1,465

Average HH income

$60,420 -10%

Jacksonville: $66,981

Poverty rate

14.0% -7%

Jacksonville: 15.0%

Renter share

47.1% +11%

Jacksonville: 42.4%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Ortega Forest and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 4 tracts span score 2.7–4.7

Why Ortega Forest scores 4.1

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 1.5–1.5 across tracts

1.5

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.2–5.2 across tracts

5.2

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 3.0–3.0 across tracts

3.0

Rent control risk

62% of income on rent · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Tenant organizing strength

47% renter households · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 3.0–3.0 across tracts

3.0

Economic stress

14.0% below poverty line · Range 1.0–4.7 across tracts

3.5

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.4–1.6 across tracts

1.5

Risk score comparison

Ortega Forest vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Ortega Forest?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 2 points from 2.7 to 4.7. This neighborhood crosses multiple risk tiers, so block-by-block conditions vary substantially.

Tracts as heat grid

4.7 4.7 3.8 2.7

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

4 tracts in Ortega Forest

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
12031013404	4.7	3,438	73%	$1,138
12031013403	4.7	3,228	75%	$1,122
12031012400	3.8	2,591	42%	$1,112
12031002300	2.7	1,918	47%	$1,138

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 48

Pop-weighted across 4 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 56%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 27%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 51%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 50%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Ortega Forest

Aggregated across 4 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

2,815Total filings (sum)
10.76%Avg annual filing rate
24.8%Peak year (2013)
11.52%Latest filed (2016)

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

1,730Total filings 2020-21
6.5Avg monthly observed
6.9Pre-pandemic baseline
0.86×Ratio to baseline

Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Tracked under Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Jacksonville, FL).

Frequently asked

About Ortega Forest

What is the eviction-risk score for Ortega Forest?

Ortega Forest scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier) across 4 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Ortega Forest compare to Jacksonville overall?

Ortega Forest scores 1.6 points higher than Jacksonville overall (2.5/10). Renters spend 62% of income on rent vs 33% citywide. Average rent: $1,127 vs $1,465.

What is the average rent in Ortega Forest?

Average gross rent in Ortega Forest is $1,127/month (pop-weighted across 4 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Ortega Forest residents are renters?

47% of Ortega Forest households are renter-occupied (vs 42% in Jacksonville). The neighborhood has 11,175 residents.

Is Ortega Forest a high social-vulnerability area?

Ortega Forest sits in the 48th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Ortega Forest have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Ortega Forest is census tract 12031013404 (score 4.7/10). Across the 4 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 2.7 to 4.7, a spread of 2 points.

How safe is Ortega Forest for landlords?

Ortega Forest carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.1/10). Pop-weighted across 4 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Jacksonville as a whole (2.5/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Ortega Forest?

Ortega Forest has 10,748 residents (White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (62.5%), Black (non-Hispanic) (22.1%), Hispanic / Latino (8.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Ortega Forest

2.2 Ortega Terrace 2 tracts · pop 4,604 3.6 Avondale 6 tracts · pop 21,984 3.5 Ortega Hills 2 tracts · pop 7,848 5 Riverside 3 tracts · pop 10,339 3.2 Miramar Terrace 2 tracts · pop 9,857 4.6 Englewood 5 tracts · pop 17,186

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Jacksonville

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Ortega Forest.

4 Loretto 3 tracts · pop 12,657 4 Royal Lakes 2 tracts · pop 7,867 4.3 Mill Creek North 5 tracts · pop 30,080 4.3 Garden City 3 tracts · pop 16,057 4.4 Belle Rive 2 tracts · pop 8,424 3.7 Goodbys 3 tracts · pop 14,467

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