Within neighborhood
33
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #44,543 of 84,120 nationally
Ortega Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , Jacksonville
Tract 12031012400 · Duval, FL · pop 2,591 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
The Ortega Forest area of Jacksonville anchors census tract 12031012400, which lands at 4.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 27% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
About 42% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 16% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,112 monthly, set against $71,712 in average yearly household income, roughly 19% of income at the averages. About 27% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 16%
Owners 73%
Tract context
Occupied units1,241
Renter share26.9%
SVI overall0.29
Poverty rate12.4%
Median income$71,712
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
47
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
63
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Jacksonville and the region
Centroid at 30.2751, -81.7279 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ortega Forest scores 3.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Jacksonville
3.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
12.4% poverty · this tract
3.1
Supply constraint
$1,112 rent vs county FMR
1.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Jacksonville
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Jacksonville
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Jacksonville
3.0
How Ortega Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 29
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 31%Socioeconomic
- 45%Household composition
- 27%Racial/ethnic minority
- 30%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 37%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 183Total filings over 10 yrs
- 5.27%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.0%Peak (2007)
- 20Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 122% over the past 10 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 94Total filings 2020-21
- 1.2Avg monthly (observed)
- 1.5Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.80×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Jacksonville, FL as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Ortega Forest. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ortega Forest
What moves this score most is economic stress at 3.1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Jacksonville eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Duval County average of 4.8 and below the Florida statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
During 2020 and 2021, eviction filings here ran at about 0.80x the pre-COVID monthly baseline, a little under the pre-pandemic norm.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 12031012400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12031012400?
Census tract 12031012400 in the Ortega Forest neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12031012400?
Median gross rent is $1,112/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12031012400?
12.4% of residents in tract 12031012400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,591.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12031012400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 29th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 31th, household 45th, minority 27th, housing 30th.
Q5
Is tract 12031012400 considered part of Ortega Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12031012400 fall within Ortega Forest (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12031012400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 183 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 12031012400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.27% of renter households, peaking at 6.0% in 2007. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12031012400 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.80× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Jacksonville eviction risk, FL), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12031012400 compare to Jacksonville overall?
Tract 12031012400 scores 3.8/10, higher than the parent city of Jacksonville at 2.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Jacksonville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 12031012400 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Jacksonville
Top eight tracts in Jacksonville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · FL
LaVilla
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
12031002801
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
12031002802
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
LaVilla
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
Brentwood
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
Tallulah-North Shore
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
12031011000
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
Riverside
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
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