Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Ortega Forest Eviction Risk: Moderate , Jacksonville
Tract 12031013403 · Duval, FL · pop 3,228 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
12031013403 is a census tract in the Ortega Forest area of Jacksonville, FL. It scores 4.6/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,228 residents. 47% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 49%
Stable renters 17%
Owners 34%
Tract context
Occupied units1,467
Renter share65.3%
SVI overall0.59
Poverty rate16.9%
Median income$38,888
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
74
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Jacksonville and the region
Centroid at 30.2587, -81.7337 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ortega Forest scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Jacksonville
3.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
16.9% poverty · this tract
4.2
Supply constraint
$1,122 rent vs county FMR
1.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Jacksonville
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Jacksonville
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Jacksonville
3.0
How Ortega Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 59
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 74%Socioeconomic
- 13%Household composition
- 76%Racial/ethnic minority
- 56%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,429Total filings over 10 yrs
- 13.20%Avg annual filing rate
- 20.1%Peak (2007)
- 226Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 117% over the past 10 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 1,060Total filings 2020-21
- 13.8Avg monthly (observed)
- 11.5Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.19×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Jacksonville, FL as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Ortega Forest. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ortega Forest
Against Duval County at 49.2%, roughly three in four of renters here are cost-burdened. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Set annual rent against average income of $38,888 and the ratio lands at 35%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 1.5/10. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.5/10.
65% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. At $1,122 a month, rents run 23% under what the rest of Jacksonville commands. The filing record is not thin: 1,429 evictions over 10 years of observation.
Against the Duval County average of 3.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points. Filings peaked in 2007 at 20.1% of renter households. In a typical year about 13.2% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.3/10.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 12031013403
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12031013403?
Census tract 12031013403 in the Ortega Forest neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12031013403?
Median gross rent is $1,122/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 75% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12031013403?
16.9% of residents in tract 12031013403 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,228.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12031013403?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 59th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 74th, household 13th, minority 76th, housing 56th.
Q5
Is tract 12031013403 considered part of Ortega Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12031013403 fall within Ortega Forest (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12031013403?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,429 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 12031013403 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 13.20% of renter households, peaking at 20.1% in 2007. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12031013403 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.19× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Jacksonville eviction risk, FL), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12031013403 compare to Jacksonville overall?
Tract 12031013403 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Jacksonville at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Jacksonville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Jacksonville
Top eight tracts in Jacksonville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · FL
Brentwood
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Mill Creek North
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
12031017400
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
LaVilla
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Brentwood
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
12031012800
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
12031014702
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Englewood
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
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