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Neighborhood · Ranked #34,332 of 84,120 nationally

Loretto Eviction Risk: Moderate , Jacksonville

Tract 12031016727 · Duval, FL · pop 4,314 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

With a score of 4.9/10, tract 12031016727 in the Loretto area of Jacksonville ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 4,314 residents. That is riskier than about 36% of US census tracts.

About 65% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 44% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,490 a month while the average household earns $40,774 a year, roughly 44% of income at the averages. About 51% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
4.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 33% Stable renters 18% Owners 49%
Tract context
Occupied units1,800
Renter share51.2%
SVI overall0.93
Poverty rate13.1%
Median income$40,774

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Loretto
Very High
Within parent city
63 th percentile
Rank, 63rd percentileLowHigh
#77 of 206 tracts In Jacksonville
Elevated
Within county
65 th percentile
Rank, 65th percentileLowHigh
#77 of 218 tracts In Duval
Elevated
Within state
77 th percentile
Rank, 77th percentileLowHigh
#1,204 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Jacksonville and the region

Centroid at 30.1810, -81.6161 · click any tract to drill in

Why Loretto scores 4.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Jacksonville
3.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
13.1% poverty · this tract
3.3
Supply constraint
$1,490 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Jacksonville
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Jacksonville
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Jacksonville
3.0

How Loretto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Loretto risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.44.4This tracttract 016727Jacksonville: 2.52.5Jacksonvilleparent cityCounty: 3.93.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.53.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 93

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 570Total filings over 10 yrs
  • 9.54%Avg annual filing rate
  • 22.4%Peak (2007)
  • 51Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2002 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 120310167272002: 52 filings (11.43/100 renter HHs)2007: 101 filings (22.42/100 renter HHs)2009: 31 filings (6.88/100 renter HHs)2010: 23 filings (3.05/100 renter HHs)2011: 46 filings (6.71/100 renter HHs)2012: 68 filings (9.91/100 renter HHs)2013: 85 filings (12.39/100 renter HHs)2014: 65 filings (9.48/100 renter HHs)2015: 48 filings (7.00/100 renter HHs)2016: 51 filings (6.10/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 10 months.

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 211Total filings 2020-21
  • 2.7Avg monthly (observed)
  • 4.9Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 0.56×Ratio to baseline
Monthly filings 2020–2021 2020-01-01 to 2026-05-01
Monthly eviction filings vs pre-pandemic baseline2020-01-01: 4 filings (0.80× baseline)2020-02-01: 5 filings (1.25× baseline)2020-03-01: 3 filings (0.83× baseline)2020-04-01: 2 filings (0.48× baseline)2020-05-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2020-06-01: 1 filings (0.12× baseline)2020-07-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2020-08-01: 1 filings (0.20× baseline)2020-09-01: 7 filings (1.25× baseline)2020-10-01: 6 filings (0.94× baseline)2020-11-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2020-12-01: 2 filings (0.45× baseline)2021-01-01: 4 filings (0.80× baseline)2021-02-01: 2 filings (0.50× baseline)2021-03-01: 4 filings (1.11× baseline)2021-04-01: 2 filings (0.48× baseline)2021-05-01: 2 filings (0.40× baseline)2021-06-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2021-07-01: 4 filings (0.74× baseline)2021-08-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2021-09-01: 7 filings (1.25× baseline)2021-10-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2021-11-01: 2 filings (0.37× baseline)2021-12-01: 5 filings (1.14× baseline)2022-01-01: 3 filings (0.60× baseline)2022-02-01: 1 filings (0.25× baseline)2022-03-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2022-04-01: 2 filings (0.48× baseline)2022-05-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2022-06-01: 1 filings (0.12× baseline)2022-07-01: 6 filings (1.11× baseline)2022-08-01: 5 filings (1.00× baseline)2022-09-01: 3 filings (0.54× baseline)2022-10-01: 2 filings (0.31× baseline)2022-11-01: 2 filings (0.37× baseline)2022-12-01: 5 filings (1.14× baseline)2023-01-01: 4 filings (0.80× baseline)2023-02-01: 3 filings (0.75× baseline)2023-03-01: 4 filings (1.11× baseline)2023-04-01: 1 filings (0.24× baseline)2023-05-01: 2 filings (0.40× baseline)2023-06-01: 2 filings (0.24× baseline)2023-07-01: 2 filings (0.37× baseline)2023-08-01: 5 filings (1.00× baseline)2023-09-01: 5 filings (0.89× baseline)2023-10-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2023-11-01: 5 filings (0.93× baseline)2023-12-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2024-01-01: 3 filings (0.60× baseline)2024-02-01: 3 filings (0.75× baseline)2024-03-01: 3 filings (0.83× baseline)2024-04-01: 1 filings (0.24× baseline)2024-05-01: 7 filings (1.40× baseline)2024-06-01: 3 filings (0.36× baseline)2024-07-01: 4 filings (0.74× baseline)2024-08-01: 3 filings (0.60× baseline)2024-09-01: 7 filings (1.25× baseline)2024-10-01: 1 filings (0.16× baseline)2024-11-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2024-12-01: 5 filings (1.14× baseline)2025-01-01: 2 filings (0.40× baseline)2025-02-01: 1 filings (0.25× baseline)2025-03-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2025-04-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2025-05-01: 6 filings (1.20× baseline)2025-06-01: 3 filings (0.36× baseline)2025-07-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2025-08-01: 2 filings (0.40× baseline)2025-09-01: 1 filings (0.18× baseline)2025-10-01: 5 filings (0.78× baseline)2025-11-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2025-12-01: 6 filings (1.36× baseline)2026-01-01: 11 filings (110.00× baseline)2026-02-01: 1 filings (10.00× baseline)2026-03-01: 2 filings (20.00× baseline)2026-04-01: 5 filings (50.00× baseline)2026-05-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)

Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Jacksonville, FL as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Loretto. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Loretto

The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 3.6/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Jacksonville eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Duval County average of 4.8 and in line with the Florida statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

During 2020 and 2021, eviction filings here ran at about 0.56x the pre-COVID monthly baseline, well below the pre-pandemic norm, the signature of an eviction moratorium at work.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 93rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 12031016727

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12031016727?

Census tract 12031016727 in the Loretto neighborhood scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12031016727?

Median gross rent is $1,490/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12031016727?

13.1% of residents in tract 12031016727 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,314.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12031016727?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 93th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 76th, household 94th, minority 46th, housing 98th.
Q5

Is tract 12031016727 considered part of Loretto?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12031016727 fall within Loretto (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12031016727?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 570 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 12031016727 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.54% of renter households, peaking at 22.4% in 2007. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

Did eviction filings in tract 12031016727 drop during COVID?

Pandemic-era filings ran 0.56× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Jacksonville eviction risk, FL), 2020-2021.
Q8

How does tract 12031016727 compare to Jacksonville overall?

Tract 12031016727 scores 4.4/10, higher than the parent city of Jacksonville at 2.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Jacksonville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Jacksonville

Top eight tracts in Jacksonville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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