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Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally

Nowatney Eviction Risk: Moderate , University

Tract 12057010815 · Hillsborough, FL · pop 2,107 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

With a score of 4.6/10, tract 12057010815 in the Nowatney area of University, FL reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,107. The severe-burden share is 48%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 56% Stable renters 44% Owners 0%
Tract context
Occupied units862
Renter share100.0%
SVI overall0.95
Poverty rate38.5%
Median income$31,641

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
80 th percentile
Rank, 80th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 6 tracts In Nowatney
High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 14 tracts In University
Very High
Within county
61 th percentile
Rank, 61st percentileLowHigh
#131 of 333 tracts In Hillsborough
Elevated
Within state
70 th percentile
Rank, 70th percentileLowHigh
#1,528 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across University and the region

Centroid at 28.0678, -82.4335 · click any tract to drill in

Why Nowatney scores 4.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from University
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
38.5% poverty · this tract
9.6
Supply constraint
$1,155 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from University
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from University
1.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from University
1.0

How Nowatney compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Nowatney risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.6This tracttract 0108153.2Universityparent city4.2Countyavg tract in county4.1Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 95

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,041Total filings over 11 yrs
  • 8.26%Avg annual filing rate
  • 7.4%Peak (2004)
  • 85Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 12057010815
Filings dropped 18% over the past 11 months.

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 468Total filings 2020-21
  • 6.4Avg monthly (observed)
  • 6.8Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 0.94×Ratio to baseline
Monthly filings 2020–2021 2020-01-01 to 2026-01-01
Monthly eviction filings vs pre-pandemic baseline

Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Nowatney. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Nowatney

Adults with no health insurance runs 38.1% against 11.3% nationally. 100% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. The dominant input is economic stress at 9.6/10.

Annualized rent equals 44% of average household income of $31,641, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. The poverty rate is 39%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1/10.

Running cool, housing-court posture reads 1/10. Disability prevalence runs 46.6% against 31.5% nationally.

The filing record is not thin: 1,041 evictions over 11 years of observation. Cost burden runs 56% here against 51.5% across Hillsborough County.

Filings peaked in 2004 at 7.4% of renter households. In a typical year about 8.3% of renter households face a filing.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 12057010815

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12057010815?

Census tract 12057010815 in the Nowatney neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12057010815?

Median gross rent is $1,155/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12057010815?

38.5% of residents in tract 12057010815 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,107.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12057010815?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 95th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 89th, household 85th, minority 93th, housing 90th.
Q5

Is tract 12057010815 considered part of Nowatney?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12057010815 fall within Nowatney (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12057010815?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,041 eviction filings across 11 validated years in tract 12057010815 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.26% of renter households, peaking at 7.4% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

Did eviction filings in tract 12057010815 drop during COVID?

Pandemic-era filings ran 0.94× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q8

How does tract 12057010815 compare to University overall?

Tract 12057010815 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of University at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from University; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in University

Top eight tracts in University ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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