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Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally

Nowatney Eviction Risk: Moderate , University

Tract 12057010817 · Hillsborough, FL · pop 4,801 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Tract 12057010817 sits in the Nowatney area of University, FL, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.6/10. Population here is 4,801. 35% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 32% Stable renters 27% Owners 41%
Tract context
Occupied units1,961
Renter share59.6%
SVI overall0.96
Poverty rate36.0%
Median income$37,414

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 6 tracts In Nowatney
Moderate
Within parent city
85 th percentile
Rank, 85th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 14 tracts In University
High
Within county
61 th percentile
Rank, 61st percentileLowHigh
#129 of 333 tracts In Hillsborough
Elevated
Within state
70 th percentile
Rank, 70th percentileLowHigh
#1,528 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across University and the region

Centroid at 28.0789, -82.4451 · click any tract to drill in

Why Nowatney scores 4.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from University
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
36.0% poverty · this tract
9.0
Supply constraint
$1,027 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from University
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from University
1.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from University
1.0

How Nowatney compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Nowatney risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.6This tracttract 0108173.2Universityparent city4.2Countyavg tract in county4.1Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 96

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,508Total filings over 11 yrs
  • 14.47%Avg annual filing rate
  • 17.6%Peak (2009)
  • 151Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 12057010817
Filings climbed 23% over the past 11 months.

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 611Total filings 2020-21
  • 8.4Avg monthly (observed)
  • 10.3Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 0.81×Ratio to baseline
Monthly filings 2020–2021 2020-01-01 to 2026-01-01
Monthly eviction filings vs pre-pandemic baseline

Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Nowatney. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Nowatney

The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Adults with no health insurance runs 30.9% against 11.3% nationally. Well under the midpoint, housing-court posture reads 1/10.

The poverty rate is 36%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Sitting well above the midpoint, economic stress reads 9/10.

Set annual rent against average income of $37,414 and the ratio lands at 33%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 1,508 filings here across 11 tracked years. At $1,027 a month, rents run 13% under what the rest of University commands.

The worst year on record was 2009, when 17.6% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 14.5% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 53rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 12057010817

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12057010817?

Census tract 12057010817 in the Nowatney neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12057010817?

Median gross rent is $1,027/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12057010817?

36.0% of residents in tract 12057010817 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,801.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12057010817?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 96th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 68th, minority 81th, housing 97th.
Q5

Is tract 12057010817 considered part of Nowatney?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12057010817 fall within Nowatney (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12057010817?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,508 eviction filings across 11 validated years in tract 12057010817 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.47% of renter households, peaking at 17.6% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

Did eviction filings in tract 12057010817 drop during COVID?

Pandemic-era filings ran 0.81× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q8

How does tract 12057010817 compare to University overall?

Tract 12057010817 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of University at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from University; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in University

Top eight tracts in University ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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