Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #56,660 of 84,120 nationally
Arista Eviction Risk: Lower , Valrico
Tract 12057012209 · Hillsborough, FL · pop 5,286 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 12057012209 belongs to Arista in Valrico, Florida. It is home to 5,286 residents and scores 5.6/10, a moderate reading for landlords. That is riskier than about 62% of US census tracts.
About 44% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 19% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,972 a month against an average household income of $101,090 a year, roughly 23% of income at the averages. About 26% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
3.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 75%
Tract context
Occupied units1,865
Renter share25.8%
SVI overall0.43
Poverty rate20.0%
Median income$101,090
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
37
th percentile
Low
Within state
44
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Valrico and the region
Centroid at 27.9618, -82.2388 · click any tract to drill in
Why Arista scores 3.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Valrico
5.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
20.0% poverty · this tract
5.0
Supply constraint
$1,972 rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Valrico
7.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Valrico
4.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Valrico
6.3
How Arista compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 43
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 43%Socioeconomic
- 61%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 23%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 246Total filings over 11 yrs
- 16.60%Avg annual filing rate
- 14.5%Peak (2016)
- 58Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 287% over the past 11 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 108Total filings 2020-21
- 1.5Avg monthly (observed)
- 2.2Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.67×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Arista
The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 7.9/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Valrico, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Hillsborough County average of 5.1 and above the Florida statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 246 eviction filings here over 11 tracked years, with about 16.6% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 14.5% of renter households in 2016.
During 2020 and 2021, eviction filings here ran at about 0.67x the pre-COVID monthly baseline, well below the pre-pandemic norm, the signature of an eviction moratorium at work.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 12057012209
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12057012209?
Census tract 12057012209 in the Arista neighborhood scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12057012209?
Median gross rent is $1,972/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12057012209?
20.0% of residents in tract 12057012209 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,286.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12057012209?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 43th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 43th, household 61th, minority 69th, housing 23th.
Q5
Is tract 12057012209 considered part of Arista?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12057012209 fall within Arista (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12057012209?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 246 eviction filings across 11 validated years in tract 12057012209 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 16.60% of renter households, peaking at 14.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12057012209 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.67× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12057012209 compare to Valrico overall?
Tract 12057012209 scores 3.1/10, higher than the parent city of Valrico at 2.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Valrico; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Valrico
Top eight tracts in Valrico ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related