Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally
Arista Eviction Risk: Moderate , Valrico
Tract 12057012209 · Hillsborough, FL · pop 5,286 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
With a score of 4/10, tract 12057012209 in the Arista area of Valrico, FL reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. The main counterweight is eviction-process difficulty at 1/10.
Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 75%
Tract context
Occupied units1,865
Renter share25.8%
SVI overall0.43
Poverty rate20.0%
Median income$101,090
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
46
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
56
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Valrico and the region
Centroid at 27.9618, -82.2388 · click any tract to drill in
Why Arista scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Valrico
5.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
20.0% poverty · this tract
5.0
Supply constraint
$1,972 rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Valrico
7.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Valrico
4.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Valrico
6.3
How Arista compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 43
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 43%Socioeconomic
- 61%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 23%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 246Total filings over 11 yrs
- 16.60%Avg annual filing rate
- 14.5%Peak (2016)
- 58Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 287% over the past 11 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 108Total filings 2020-21
- 1.5Avg monthly (observed)
- 2.2Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.67×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Arista
Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 1.5/10. Severe burden reaches 19%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10. 44% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Hillsborough County average of 51.5%.
The poverty rate is 20%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Court records carry 246 eviction filings across 11 observed years.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 14.5% of renter households. In a typical year about 16.6% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #48,956 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. It tracks the Hillsborough County average of 4.2 closely.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 12057012209
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12057012209?
Census tract 12057012209 in the Arista neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12057012209?
Median gross rent is $1,972/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12057012209?
20.0% of residents in tract 12057012209 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,286.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12057012209?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 43th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 43th, household 61th, minority 69th, housing 23th.
Q5
Is tract 12057012209 considered part of Arista?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12057012209 fall within Arista (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12057012209?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 246 eviction filings across 11 validated years in tract 12057012209 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 16.60% of renter households, peaking at 14.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12057012209 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.67× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12057012209 compare to Valrico overall?
Tract 12057012209 scores 4/10, right in line with the parent city of Valrico at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Valrico; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Valrico
Top eight tracts in Valrico ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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