Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Erin Arbor Eviction Risk: Lower , Valrico
Tract 12057013206 · Hillsborough, FL · pop 5,025 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
12057013206 is a census tract in the Erin Arbor area of Valrico, FL. It scores 3/10 for landlords. 43% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units1,898
Renter share14.1%
SVI overall0.11
Poverty rate7.7%
Median income$98,571
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
57
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
8
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
28
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Valrico and the region
Centroid at 27.9015, -82.2377 · click any tract to drill in
Why Erin Arbor scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Valrico
5.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
7.7% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$2,428 rent vs county FMR
7.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Valrico
7.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Valrico
4.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Valrico
6.3
How Erin Arbor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 11
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 12%Socioeconomic
- 31%Household composition
- 52%Racial/ethnic minority
- 9%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 56Total filings over 11 yrs
- 7.91%Avg annual filing rate
- 44.0%Peak (2009)
- 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 1,000% over the past 11 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 64Total filings 2020-21
- 0.9Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.9Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.97×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Erin Arbor
The clearest offset is eviction-process difficulty at 1/10. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 1.5/10.
Average gross rent is $2,428, 25% above the Valrico average. The voucher gap is 22.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.9/10.
Against the Hillsborough County average of 4.2, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.2 points. Court records carry 56 eviction filings across 11 observed years.
The worst year on record was 2009, when 44.0% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 7.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
Only 14% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2/10.
Statewide the FL average is 4.1, so this tract runs 1.1 points cooler. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 12057013206
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12057013206?
Census tract 12057013206 in the Erin Arbor neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12057013206?
Median gross rent is $2,428/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12057013206?
7.7% of residents in tract 12057013206 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,025.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12057013206?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 11th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 12th, household 31th, minority 52th, housing 9th.
Q5
Is tract 12057013206 considered part of Erin Arbor?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12057013206 fall within Erin Arbor (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12057013206?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 56 eviction filings across 11 validated years in tract 12057013206 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.91% of renter households, peaking at 44.0% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12057013206 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.97× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12057013206 compare to Valrico overall?
Tract 12057013206 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Valrico at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Valrico; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Valrico
Top eight tracts in Valrico ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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