Neighborhood · Valrico, FL

Erin Arbor Eviction Risk: Lower

1 census tracts · pop 5,025 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 2.2/10 · range 2.2–2.2

Erin Arbor is a white (non-hispanic) neighborhood in Valrico with 1 census tract and a population of 5,025 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 2.2/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 49% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 43% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $2,428/month sits 25% higher than the Valrico citywide average ($1,937).

Risk score

2.2

Lower

1 tracts · population-weighted

Erin Arbor vs Valrico How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

48.5% +46%

Valrico: 33.2%

Average gross rent

$2,428 +25%

Valrico: $1,937

Average HH income

$98,571 +0%

Valrico: $98,451

Poverty rate

7.7% -11%

Valrico: 8.6%

Renter share

14.1% -33%

Valrico: 21.0%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Erin Arbor and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 2.2–2.2

Why Erin Arbor scores 2.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 1.5–1.5 across tracts

1.5

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.3–5.3 across tracts

5.3

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 5.8–5.8 across tracts

5.8

Rent control risk

49% of income on rent · Range 7.9–7.9 across tracts

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts

1.0

Tenant organizing strength

14% renter households · Range 4.7–4.7 across tracts

4.7

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 6.3–6.3 across tracts

6.3

Economic stress

7.7% below poverty line · Range 1.9–1.9 across tracts

1.9

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 7.3–7.3 across tracts

7.3

Risk score comparison

Erin Arbor vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Census tracts

1 tracts in Erin Arbor

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
12057013206	2.2	5,025	49%	$2,428

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 11

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 12%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 31%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 52%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 9%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Erin Arbor

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

56Total filings (sum)
7.91%Avg annual filing rate
44.0%Peak year (2009)
5.76%Latest filed (2016)

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

64Total filings 2020-21
0.9Avg monthly observed
0.9Pre-pandemic baseline
0.97×Ratio to baseline

Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Tracked under Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA).

Frequently asked

About Erin Arbor

What is the eviction-risk score for Erin Arbor?

Erin Arbor scores 2.2/10 (Lower tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Erin Arbor compare to Valrico overall?

Erin Arbor scores 0.0 points higher than Valrico overall (2.2/10). Renters spend 49% of income on rent vs 33% citywide. Average rent: $2,428 vs $1,937.

What is the average rent in Erin Arbor?

Average gross rent in Erin Arbor is $2,428/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Erin Arbor residents are renters?

14% of Erin Arbor households are renter-occupied (vs 21% in Valrico). The neighborhood has 5,025 residents.

Is Erin Arbor a high social-vulnerability area?

Erin Arbor sits in the 11th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

How safe is Erin Arbor for landlords?

Erin Arbor carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (2.2/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Valrico as a whole (2.2/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.

What is the demographic breakdown of Erin Arbor?

Erin Arbor has 4,929 residents (White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (60.3%), Hispanic / Latino (19.8%), Black (non-Hispanic) (8.6%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Erin Arbor

2.6 The District 2 tracts · pop 8,300 2.3 Abbey Grove 3 tracts · pop 16,567 3.5 Brentwood Hills 2 tracts · pop 10,249 3.9 Allendale 3 tracts · pop 12,211 3.1 Winthrop Village 2 tracts · pop 4,676 3.3 Winthrop 2 tracts · pop 11,574

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Valrico

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Erin Arbor.

2.1 Abbey Grove 3 tracts · pop 16,567 1.8 Twin Lakes of Brandon 1 tracts · pop 4,491 2.9 Angel Run 1 tracts · pop 5,916 3.1 Arista 1 tracts · pop 5,286 1.2 River Hills 1 tracts · pop 4,958

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