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Neighborhood · Ranked #8,653 of 84,120 nationally

Modello Eviction Risk: Elevated , Leisure City

Tract 12086010804 · Miami-Dade, FL · pop 7,232 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

Tract 12086010804 sits in the Modello area of Naranja, FL, carrying an eviction-risk score of 7.9/10. Population here is 7,232. 43% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
7.9
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 49% Stable renters 34% Owners 17%
Tract context
Occupied units2,556
Renter share82.7%
SVI overall0.98
Poverty rate29.1%
Median income$57,681

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 7 tracts In Modello
Very High
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Leisure City
Moderate
Within county
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 706 tracts In Miami-Dade
Very High
Within state
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Leisure City and the region

Centroid at 25.5126, -80.4240 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modello scores 7.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Leisure City
5.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.4
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
29.1% poverty · this tract
7.3
Supply constraint
$1,616 rent vs county FMR
1.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Leisure City
8.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Leisure City
9.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Leisure City
9.0

How Modello compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Modello risk score vs. parent city / county / state7.9This tracttract 0108043.7Leisure Cityparent city4.6Countyavg tract in county4.1Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 98

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 529Total filings 2020-21
  • 7.3Avg monthly (observed)
  • 7.6Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 0.96×Ratio to baseline
Monthly filings 2020–2021 2020-01-01 to 2026-01-01
Monthly eviction filings vs pre-pandemic baseline

Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Miami as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Modello. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modello

It sits 3.3 points above the Miami-Dade County average of 4.6. What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.8/10. Adults with no health insurance runs 33.6% against 11.3% nationally.

This is renter territory: 83% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Running hot, housing-court posture reads 9/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.9/10. Annualized rent equals 34% of average household income of $57,681, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The poverty rate is 29%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. On the national scale it lands near the 90th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the FL average is 4.1, so this tract runs 3.8 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.

Rent takes 30% or more of income for 59% of renters. Average gross rent is $1,616, close to the Naranja average.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 12086010804

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12086010804?

Census tract 12086010804 in the Modello neighborhood scores 7.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12086010804?

Median gross rent is $1,616/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12086010804?

29.1% of residents in tract 12086010804 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,232.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12086010804?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 99th, household 91th, minority 88th, housing 87th.
Q5

Is tract 12086010804 considered part of Modello?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12086010804 fall within Modello (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

Did eviction filings in tract 12086010804 drop during COVID?

Pandemic-era filings ran 0.96× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Miami eviction risk), 2020-2021.
Q7

How does tract 12086010804 compare to Leisure City overall?

Tract 12086010804 scores 7.9/10, higher than the parent city of Leisure City at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Leisure City; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Leisure City

Top eight tracts in Leisure City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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