Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally
Model Land Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Augustine
Tract 12109020300 · St. Johns, FL · pop 3,196 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
With a score of 4.7/10, tract 12109020300 in the Model Land Historic District area of St. Augustine, FL reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,196 residents. The severe-burden share is 57%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 37%
Stable renters 16%
Owners 47%
Tract context
Occupied units1,367
Renter share53.3%
SVI overall0.94
Poverty rate17.3%
Median income$58,814
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
90
th percentile
High
Within state
72
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Augustine and the region
Centroid at 29.8933, -81.3289 · click any tract to drill in
Why Model Land Historic District scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Augustine
4.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.7
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
17.3% poverty · this tract
4.3
Supply constraint
$1,684 rent vs county FMR
4.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Augustine
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Augustine
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Augustine
1.8
How Model Land Historic District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 94
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 92%Socioeconomic
- 90%Household composition
- 53%Racial/ethnic minority
- 92%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 196Total filings over 5 yrs
- 5.45%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.0%Peak (2006)
- 32Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 41% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Model Land Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Model Land Historic District
69% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the St. Johns County average of 53.0%. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Annualized rent equals 34% of average household income of $58,814, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.
Running cool, state political climate reads 1.5/10. On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.8/10. Against the St. Johns County average of 3.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.0 points.
The filing record is not thin: 196 evictions over 5 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2006, when 7.0% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 5.5% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 55% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 9.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,684, close to the St. Augustine average.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 12109020300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12109020300?
Census tract 12109020300 in the Model Land Historic District neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12109020300?
Median gross rent is $1,684/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 69% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12109020300?
17.3% of residents in tract 12109020300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,196.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12109020300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 94th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 92th, household 90th, minority 53th, housing 92th.
Q5
Is tract 12109020300 considered part of Model Land Historic District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12109020300 fall within Model Land Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12109020300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 196 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 12109020300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.45% of renter households, peaking at 7.0% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 12109020300 compare to St. Augustine overall?
Tract 12109020300 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of St. Augustine at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Augustine; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Augustine
Top eight tracts in St. Augustine ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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