Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally
Model Land Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Augustine
Tract 12109020400 · St. Johns, FL · pop 3,505 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
12109020400 is a census tract in the Model Land Historic District area of St. Augustine, FL. It scores 4.7/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,505. 33% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 36%
Stable renters 17%
Owners 47%
Tract context
Occupied units905
Renter share53.1%
SVI overall0.34
Poverty rate18.9%
Median income$64,219
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
92
th percentile
Very High
Within state
72
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Augustine and the region
Centroid at 29.8842, -81.3151 · click any tract to drill in
Why Model Land Historic District scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Augustine
4.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.7
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
18.9% poverty · this tract
4.7
Supply constraint
$1,468 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Augustine
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Augustine
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Augustine
1.8
How Model Land Historic District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 34
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 56%Socioeconomic
- 4%Household composition
- 21%Racial/ethnic minority
- 62%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 85Total filings over 5 yrs
- 3.07%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.5%Peak (2008)
- 7Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 63% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Model Land Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Model Land Historic District
68% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the St. Johns County average of 53.0%. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Running cool, state political climate reads 1.5/10. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.8/10.
The poverty rate is 19%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Against the St. Johns County average of 3.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.0 points.
The filing record is not thin: 85 evictions over 5 years of observation. Average gross rent is $1,468, 11% below the St. Augustine average. Filings peaked in 2008 at 4.5% of renter households.
In a typical year about 3.1% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 55th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 4.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 12109020400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12109020400?
Census tract 12109020400 in the Model Land Historic District neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12109020400?
Median gross rent is $1,468/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12109020400?
18.9% of residents in tract 12109020400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,505.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12109020400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 34th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 56th, household 4th, minority 21th, housing 62th.
Q5
Is tract 12109020400 considered part of Model Land Historic District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12109020400 fall within Model Land Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12109020400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 85 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 12109020400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.07% of renter households, peaking at 4.5% in 2008. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 12109020400 compare to St. Augustine overall?
Tract 12109020400 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of St. Augustine at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Augustine; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Augustine
Top eight tracts in St. Augustine ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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