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Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

Lower Mānoa Eviction Risk: Moderate , Urban Honolulu

Tract 15003003000 · Honolulu County, HI · pop 4,658 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

15003003000 is a census tract in the Lower Mānoa area of Urban Honolulu, HI. It scores 5.4/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,658 residents. 34% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well below the Honolulu County average of 50.9%.

Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8% Stable renters 15% Owners 77%
Tract context
Occupied units1,666
Renter share23.2%
SVI overall0.23
Poverty rate4.9%
Median income$195,100

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#13 of 13 tracts In Lower Mānoa
Very Low
Within parent city
3 th percentile
Rank, 3rd percentileLowHigh
#128 of 132 tracts In Urban Honolulu
Very Low
Within county
34 th percentile
Rank, 34th percentileLowHigh
#218 of 329 tracts In Honolulu County
Low
Within state
37 th percentile
Rank, 37th percentileLowHigh
#275 of 436 tracts In Hawaii
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Urban Honolulu and the region

Centroid at 21.3092, -157.8195 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lower Mānoa scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Urban Honolulu
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Hawaii legislature & governorship
5.5
Economic stress
4.9% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$1,943 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Urban Honolulu
7.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Urban Honolulu
9.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Urban Honolulu
6.6

How Lower Mānoa compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Lower Mānoa risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.4This tracttract 0030006.6Urban Honoluluparent city6.0Countyavg tract in county5.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 23

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Lower Mānoa. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lower Mānoa

What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.2/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.2/10.

Severe burden reaches 20%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Running cool, court filing pressure reads 1.7/10.

SNAP participation runs 5.1% against 15.2% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.0% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

At 23% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.1/10.

Rent consumes only 12% of average household income of $195,100, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Honolulu County average of 6.0 closely.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 15003003000

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 15003003000?

Census tract 15003003000 in the Lower Mānoa neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 15003003000?

Median gross rent is $1,943/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 15003003000?

4.9% of residents in tract 15003003000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,658.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 15003003000?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 23th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 8th, household 24th, minority 84th, housing 41th.
Q5

Is tract 15003003000 considered part of Lower Mānoa?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 15003003000 fall within Lower Mānoa (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 15003003000 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 15003003000 compare to Urban Honolulu overall?

Tract 15003003000 scores 5.4/10, lower than the parent city of Urban Honolulu at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Urban Honolulu eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Urban Honolulu

Top eight tracts in Urban Honolulu ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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