Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #13,119 of 84,120 nationally
Arcadia Terrace Eviction Risk: Moderate , Chicago
Tract 17031040202 · Cook County, IL · pop 7,965 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Census tract 17031040202 covers the Arcadia Terrace neighborhood of Chicago, home to 7,965 residents. For landlords it grades 6.3/10, an elevated reading. That is riskier than about 83% of US census tracts.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 68% of renter households, a severe level, and 38% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,410 monthly, set against $62,500 in average yearly household income, roughly 27% of income at the averages. About 60% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
5.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 41%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 40%
Tract context
Occupied units2,954
Renter share60.2%
SVI overall0.97
Poverty rate18.4%
Median income$62,500
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
64
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
75
th percentile
High
Within state
87
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chicago and the region
Centroid at 41.9799, -87.6941 · click any tract to drill in
Why Arcadia Terrace scores 5.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Chicago
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.5
State political climate
Illinois legislature & governorship
5.2
Economic stress
18.4% poverty · this tract
4.6
Supply constraint
$1,410 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chicago
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chicago
8.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chicago
6.5
How Arcadia Terrace compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 97
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 97%Socioeconomic
- 50%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 99%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 83%Grade B
- 17%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 732Total filings over 15 yrs
- 2.64%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.9%Peak (2013)
- 40Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 15 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Arcadia Terrace. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.0%Housing insecurity
- 10.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 23.7%Food insecurity
- 21.2%SNAP enrollment
- 10.7%Transit barriers
- 12.7%No health insurance
- 15.6%Frequent mental distress
- 28.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Arcadia Terrace
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Chicago eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Cook County average of 5.7 and above the Illinois statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 17.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 17031040202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17031040202?
Census tract 17031040202 in the Arcadia Terrace neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 17031040202?
Median gross rent is $1,410/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 17031040202?
18.4% of residents in tract 17031040202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,965.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 17031040202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 97th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 50th, minority 79th, housing 99th.
Q5
Is tract 17031040202 considered part of Arcadia Terrace?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 17031040202 fall within Arcadia Terrace (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 17031040202?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 732 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 17031040202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.64% of renter households, peaking at 2.9% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 17031040202 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 17031040202 compare to Chicago overall?
Tract 17031040202 scores 5.9/10, right in line with the parent city of Chicago at 5.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chicago eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 17031040202 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chicago
Top eight tracts in Chicago ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · IL
Pacific Junction
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
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Becks Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IL
Homan Square
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IL
Ridgeland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IL
Central Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IL
North Kenwood
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IL
Argyle Street
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IL
Ridgeland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
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