Northgate Eviction Risk: Moderate , Springfield

The dominant input is economic stress at 9.5/10. The poverty rate is 38%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

The severe-burden share is 19%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. SNAP participation runs 30.2% against 15.2% nationally. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.9/10.

Against the Sangamon County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points. At $783 a month, rents run 20% under what the rest of Springfield commands.

On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 2.5/10. Food insecurity runs 25.7% against 17.8% nationally. This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Springfield. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $40,699.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.