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Neighborhood · Ranked #35,899 of 84,120 nationally

Fairground Eviction Risk: Moderate , Des Moines

Tract 19153002100 · Polk County, IA · pop 4,402 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Census tract 19153002100 covers the Fairground area of Des Moines, home to 4,402 residents. For landlords it grades 5.1/10, a moderate reading. That is riskier than about 43% of US census tracts.

48% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 28% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,120 a month while the average household earns $52,284 a year, roughly 26% of income at the averages. About 30% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14% Stable renters 15% Owners 71%
Tract context
Occupied units1,712
Renter share29.7%
SVI overall0.74
Poverty rate13.0%
Median income$52,284

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Fairground
Moderate
Within parent city
61 th percentile
Rank, 61st percentileLowHigh
#24 of 60 tracts In Des Moines
Elevated
Within county
79 th percentile
Rank, 79th percentileLowHigh
#24 of 112 tracts In Polk County
High
Within state
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#155 of 896 tracts In Iowa
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Des Moines and the region

Centroid at 41.5954, -93.5702 · click any tract to drill in

Why Fairground scores 4.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
4.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
13.0% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$1,120 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
2.5

How Fairground compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Fairground risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.34.3This tracttract 002100Des Moines: 2.62.6Des Moinesparent cityCounty: 3.23.2Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.33.3Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 74

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 484Total filings over 10 yrs
  • 9.91%Avg annual filing rate
  • 11.2%Peak (2015)
  • 68Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2006 to 2015
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 191530021002006: 39 filings (10.40/100 renter HHs)2007: 48 filings (12.80/100 renter HHs)2008: 40 filings (10.67/100 renter HHs)2009: 43 filings (11.47/100 renter HHs)2010: 35 filings (7.95/100 renter HHs)2011: 46 filings (7.55/100 renter HHs)2012: 58 filings (9.52/100 renter HHs)2013: 52 filings (8.54/100 renter HHs)2014: 55 filings (9.03/100 renter HHs)2015: 68 filings (11.17/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 74% over the past 10 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Fairground

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 4.2/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Polk County average of 5.0 and above the Iowa statewide average of 4.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Part of this tract, about 29% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was C ("Declining"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 74th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 19153002100

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153002100?

Census tract 19153002100 in the Fairground neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 19153002100?

Median gross rent is $1,120/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 19153002100?

13.0% of residents in tract 19153002100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,402.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 19153002100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 74th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 87th, household 87th, minority 57th, housing 27th.
Q5

Is tract 19153002100 considered part of Fairground?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153002100 fall within Fairground (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153002100?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 484 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153002100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.91% of renter households, peaking at 11.2% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 19153002100 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 19153002100 compare to Des Moines overall?

Tract 19153002100 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of Des Moines at 2.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 19153002100 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 29% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines

Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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