Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Fairground Eviction Risk: Moderate , Des Moines
Tract 19153002100 · Polk County, IA · pop 4,402 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
With a score of 4.6/10, tract 19153002100 in the Fairground area of Des Moines, IA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,402 residents. The severe-burden share is 28%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 71%
Tract context
Occupied units1,712
Renter share29.7%
SVI overall0.74
Poverty rate13.0%
Median income$52,284
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
56
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Des Moines and the region
Centroid at 41.5954, -93.5702 · click any tract to drill in
Why Fairground scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
4.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
13.0% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$1,120 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
2.5
How Fairground compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 74
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 87%Socioeconomic
- 87%Household composition
- 57%Racial/ethnic minority
- 27%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 70%Grade C
- 29%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 484Total filings over 10 yrs
- 9.91%Avg annual filing rate
- 11.2%Peak (2015)
- 68Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 74% over the past 10 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.4%Housing insecurity
- 10.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 23.3%Food insecurity
- 19.7%SNAP enrollment
- 11.2%Transit barriers
- 14.9%No health insurance
- 20.6%Frequent mental distress
- 34.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Fairground
The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.2/10. Running cool, state political climate reads 2.3/10.
about half of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Polk County average of 42.0%. The filing record is not thin: 484 evictions over 10 years of observation. It sits 0.8 points above the Polk County average of 3.8.
The worst year on record was 2015, when 11.2% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Des Moines. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
In a typical year about 9.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #39,308 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 19153002100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153002100?
Census tract 19153002100 in the Fairground neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 19153002100?
Median gross rent is $1,120/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 19153002100?
13.0% of residents in tract 19153002100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,402.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 19153002100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 74th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 87th, household 87th, minority 57th, housing 27th.
Q5
Is tract 19153002100 considered part of Fairground?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153002100 fall within Fairground (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153002100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 484 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153002100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.91% of renter households, peaking at 11.2% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 19153002100 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 19153002100 compare to Des Moines overall?
Tract 19153002100 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Des Moines at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 19153002100 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 29% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines
Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · IA
Pioneer Park
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
King Irving
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Western Gateway
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Kirkwood Glen
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Mondamin Presidential
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Capitol East
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Union Park
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Garton West
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
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