Neighborhood · Ranked #47,371 of 84,120 nationally
Grafton Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bel Air South
Tract 24025303700 ·
Harford County, MD · pop 3,896 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Census tract 24025303700 covers part of the Grafton Heights area of Bel Air South, MD, and scores 4.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,896. Severe burden reaches 49%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%Stable renters 5%Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units1,612
Renter share14.6%
SVI overall0.12
Poverty rate3.0%
Median income$97,300
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Grafton Heights
Moderate
Within parent city
75th percentile
#4 of 13 tracts In Bel Air South
High
Within county
52th percentile
#29 of 59 tracts In Harford County
Moderate
Within state
26th percentile
#1,087 of 1,464 tracts In Maryland
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bel Air South and the region
Centroid at 39.5367, -76.2524 · click any tract to drill in
Why Grafton Heights scores 4.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Bel Air South
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.4
State political climate
Maryland legislature & governorship
5.7
Economic stress
3.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,037 rent vs county FMR
5.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bel Air South
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bel Air South
4.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bel Air South
4.2
How Grafton Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 12
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
20%Socioeconomic
44%Household composition
20%Racial/ethnic minority
8%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
7.1%Housing insecurity
4.5%Utility-shutoff threat
7.7%Food insecurity
5.7%SNAP enrollment
4.7%Transit barriers
5.4%No health insurance
14.3%Frequent mental distress
23.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Grafton Heights
Against Harford County at 41.1%, 65% of renters here are cost-burdened. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.9/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10.
Food insecurity runs 7.7% against 17.8% nationally. At $2,037 a month, rents run 16% over what the rest of Bel Air South commands.
Housing insecurity runs 7.1% against 14.2% nationally. Nationally it ranks #47,371 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. At 15% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the MD average is 5.5, so this tract runs 1.4 points cooler.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 24025303700
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 24025303700?
Census tract 24025303700 in the Grafton Heights neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 24025303700?
Median gross rent is $2,037/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 24025303700?
3.0% of residents in tract 24025303700 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,896.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 24025303700?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 12th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 20th, household 44th, minority 20th, housing 8th.
Q5
Is tract 24025303700 considered part of Grafton Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 24025303700 fall within Grafton Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 24025303700 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 24025303700 compare to Bel Air South overall?
Tract 24025303700 scores 4.1/10, right in line with the parent city of Bel Air South at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bel Air South eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bel Air South
Top eight tracts in Bel Air South ranked by composite eviction-risk score.