Neighborhood · Ranked #8,653 of 84,120 nationally

Winchester Square Historic District Eviction Risk: Elevated , Springfield

Tract 25013801401 · Hampden County, MA · pop 3,846 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

Census tract 25013801401 covers part of the Winchester Square Historic District area of Springfield, MA, and scores 7.9/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,846 residents. Against Hampden County at 46.5%, 66% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score

7.9

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 39% Stable renters 20% Owners 41%

Tract context

Occupied units1,255

Renter share59.0%

SVI overall0.89

Poverty rate39.9%

Median income$39,588

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Springfield and the region

Centroid at 42.1276, -72.5540 · click any tract to drill in

Why Winchester Square Historic District scores 7.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Springfield

7.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.9

State political climate

Massachusetts legislature & governorship

6.2

Economic stress

39.9% poverty · this tract

10.0

Supply constraint

$999 rent vs county FMR

1.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Springfield

5.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

7.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Springfield

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Springfield

7.0

How Winchester Square Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 89

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

89%Socioeconomic
84%Household composition
93%Racial/ethnic minority
68%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Winchester Square Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

36.0%Housing insecurity
26.1%Utility-shutoff threat
45.3%Food insecurity
54.9%SNAP enrollment
24.5%Transit barriers
16.0%No health insurance
24.3%Frequent mental distress
46.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Winchester Square Historic District

The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10. SNAP participation runs 54.9% against 15.2% nationally. The severe-burden share is 31%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

The poverty rate is 40%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. It sits 2.1 points above the Hampden County average of 5.8.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 26.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.5/10. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.7/10.

At $999 a month, rents run 13% under what the rest of Springfield commands. Nationally it ranks #8,653 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Social vulnerability reads 9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 25013801401

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 25013801401?

Census tract 25013801401 in the Winchester Square Historic District neighborhood scores 7.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 25013801401?

Median gross rent is $999/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 25013801401?

39.9% of residents in tract 25013801401 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,846.

How socially vulnerable is tract 25013801401?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 89th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 89th, household 84th, minority 93th, housing 68th.

Is tract 25013801401 considered part of Winchester Square Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 25013801401 fall within Winchester Square Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 25013801401 struggle to pay rent?

About 36.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 26.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 25013801401 compare to Springfield overall?

Tract 25013801401 scores 7.9/10, higher than the parent city of Springfield at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Springfield eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Springfield

Top eight tracts in Springfield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.