Winchester Square Historic District Eviction Risk: Elevated

30% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 5.8 to 7.9, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 27.5% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.

The poverty rate is 26%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. Food insecurity affects 34.0% of adults, 16.2 points above the national rate. The main counterweight is supply constraint, at 2.9/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint is eviction-process difficulty at 7/10. On the high side is housing-court posture at 7/10.

That places it #4 of 13 neighborhoods in Springfield. For a like-for-like read, Upper Worthington Historic District and Downtown Springfield Railroad District score within a fraction of it.

Social vulnerability runs high at 8.7/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Average gross rent runs $1,146, close to the Springfield average. Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $49,761.

52% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

For a specific building, read the per-tract breakdown below rather than the 7.5 headline, because the internal range is too wide to average safely. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.