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Census Tract · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally

Forest Lake Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 27163070107 · Washington County, MN · pop 3,913

27163070107 is a census tract in Forest Lake, MN. It scores 4.9/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,913. Cost burden runs around two-thirds here against 44.0% across Washington County.

Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 8% Owners 77%
Tract context
Occupied units1,372
Renter share23.1%
SVI overall0.25
Poverty rate5.6%
Median income$88,818

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 5 tracts In Forest Lake
Moderate
Within county
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#14 of 59 tracts In Washington County
High
Within state
68 th percentile
Rank, 68th percentileLowHigh
#478 of 1,502 tracts In Minnesota
Elevated
National
59 th percentile
Rank, 59th percentileLowHigh
#34,278 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Forest Lake and the region

Centroid at 45.2323, -93.0088 · click any tract to drill in

Why Forest Lake scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Forest Lake
5.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.5
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
5.6% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$1,335 rent vs county FMR
2.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Forest Lake
6.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Forest Lake
6.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Forest Lake
5.2

How Forest Lake compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Forest Lake risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.9This tracttract 0701074.2Forest Lakeparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 25

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Forest Lake

The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.4/10. 12% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. SNAP participation runs 5.6% against 15.2% nationally.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.9/10. Food insecurity runs 8.4% against 17.8% nationally. Against the Washington County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.8 points.

That is riskier than roughly 59% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 23% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.3/10.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 6%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Average gross rent is $1,335, close to the Forest Lake average.

Annual rent works out to 18% of average household income of $88,818.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 27163070107

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27163070107?

Census tract 27163070107 in Forest Lake scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 27163070107?

Median gross rent is $1,335/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 27163070107?

5.6% of residents in tract 27163070107 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,913.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 27163070107?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 25th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 24th, household 62th, minority 34th, housing 19th.
Q5

What share of households in tract 27163070107 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6

How does tract 27163070107 compare to Forest Lake overall?

Tract 27163070107 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Forest Lake at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Forest Lake eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Forest Lake

Top eight tracts in Forest Lake ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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