Mark Twain Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Louis

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 30.8% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Housing insecurity runs 34.1% against 14.2% nationally.

What pushes it up most is economic stress at 8.6/10. The poverty rate is 35%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Annualized rent equals 36% of average household income of $30,510, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.3/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.1/10. Against the St. Louis City average of 4.4, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points.

The filing record is not thin: 589 evictions over 13 years of observation. Average gross rent is $903, 9% below the St. Louis average.

Filings peaked in 2007 at 17.8% of renter households. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

In a typical year about 13.1% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 73% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.