Lower South Willow/Airport Eviction Risk: Lower , Manchester

The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10.

18% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running cool, state political climate reads 2.5/10. SNAP participation runs 6.0% against 15.2% nationally.

Food insecurity runs 9.4% against 17.8% nationally. Average gross rent is $1,708, 9% above the Manchester average. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

That is riskier than roughly 33% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 14% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.5/10.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.