Census Tract · Ranked #5,690 of 84,120 nationally

Elizabeth Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 34039030703 · Union County, NJ · pop 5,077

Here is how census tract 34039030703, in Elizabeth eviction risk, looks to a landlord: a 6.8/10 eviction-risk score (Elevated tier) across a population of 5,077. It lands near the 92nd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

43% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 27% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,426 a month while the average household earns $70,825 a year, roughly 24% of income at the averages. Renters make up 83% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

6.8

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 36% Stable renters 48% Owners 16%

Tract context

Occupied units1,840

Renter share83.3%

SVI overall0.88

Poverty rate7.8%

Median income$70,825

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Elizabeth and the region

Centroid at 40.6532, -74.2201 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elizabeth scores 6.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.8

State political climate

New Jersey legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

7.8% poverty · this tract

1.9

Supply constraint

$1,426 rent vs county FMR

1.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

7.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Elizabeth

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.0

How Elizabeth compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 88

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

83%Socioeconomic
90%Household composition
89%Racial/ethnic minority
67%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
93%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

26.8%Housing insecurity
13.7%Utility-shutoff threat
31.8%Food insecurity
18.5%SNAP enrollment
14.3%Transit barriers
29.8%No health insurance
18.0%Frequent mental distress
31.9%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elizabeth

What moves this score most is eviction process difficulty at 7.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Elizabeth eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Union County average of 6.6 and in line with the New Jersey statewide average of 6.6. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 88th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 34039030703

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34039030703?

Census tract 34039030703 in Elizabeth scores 6.8/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 34039030703?

Median gross rent is $1,426/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 34039030703?

7.8% of residents in tract 34039030703 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,077.

How socially vulnerable is tract 34039030703?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 88th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 83th, household 90th, minority 89th, housing 67th.

What share of households in tract 34039030703 struggle to pay rent?

About 26.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 34039030703 compare to Elizabeth overall?

Tract 34039030703 scores 6.8/10, lower than the parent city of Elizabeth at 8.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Elizabeth eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 34039030703 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Elizabeth

Top eight tracts in Elizabeth ranked by composite eviction-risk score.