Within parent city
77
th percentile
High
Census Tract · Ranked #3,797 of 84,120 nationally
Elizabeth Eviction Risk: High
Tract 34039031802 · Union County, NJ · pop 3,483
With a score of 9.1/10, tract 34039031802 in Elizabeth, NJ reads high for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,483 residents. Against Union County at 44.6%, 70% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
9.1
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 68%
Stable renters 29%
Owners 3%
Tract context
Occupied units1,382
Renter share96.8%
SVI overall0.98
Poverty rate25.8%
Median income$37,256
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
97
th percentile
Very High
Within state
92
th percentile
Very High
National
96
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Elizabeth and the region
Centroid at 40.6716, -74.2230 · click any tract to drill in
Why Elizabeth scores 9.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.8
State political climate
New Jersey legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
25.8% poverty · this tract
6.4
Supply constraint
$1,330 rent vs county FMR
1.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Elizabeth
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.0
How Elizabeth compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 98
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 100%Socioeconomic
- 79%Household composition
- 93%Racial/ethnic minority
- 92%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 38%Grade B
- 49%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 712Total filings over 4 yrs
- 18.42%Avg annual filing rate
- 24.9%Peak (2013)
- 176Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 19% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 32.9%Housing insecurity
- 20.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 41.0%Food insecurity
- 30.9%SNAP enrollment
- 19.2%Transit barriers
- 30.0%No health insurance
- 19.5%Frequent mental distress
- 36.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Elizabeth
The severe-burden share is 33%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. This is renter territory: 97% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Against the Union County average of 6.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.5 points.
Set annual rent against average income of $37,256 and the ratio lands at 43%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.9/10. Housing insecurity runs 32.9% against 14.2% nationally.
Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.2/10. The poverty rate is 26%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.
Inability to pay a utility bill runs 20.4% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10. Princeton eviction risk's Eviction Lab logged 712 filings here across 4 tracked years.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 34039031802
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34039031802?
Census tract 34039031802 in Elizabeth scores 9.1/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 34039031802?
Median gross rent is $1,330/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 70% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 34039031802?
25.8% of residents in tract 34039031802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,483.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 34039031802?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 100th, household 79th, minority 93th, housing 92th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 34039031802?
Princeton eviction risk Eviction Lab recorded 712 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 34039031802 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 18.42% of renter households, peaking at 24.9% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 34039031802 struggle to pay rent?
About 32.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 20.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 34039031802 compare to Elizabeth overall?
Tract 34039031802 scores 9.1/10, higher than the parent city of Elizabeth at 7.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Elizabeth eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 34039031802 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Elizabeth
Top eight tracts in Elizabeth ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · NJ
34039030704
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
Port Ivory
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
34039031100
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
34039031200
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
Port Ivory
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
34039031301
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
34039039900
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
34039031400
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
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