Census Tract · Ranked #6,289 of 84,120 nationally

Elizabeth Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 34039032003 · Union County, NJ · pop 3,530

How risky is Elizabeth in Union County for landlords? Census tract 34039032003 scores $1/10, the Elevated tier. That is riskier than about 94% of US census tracts.

57% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 16% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,488 monthly, set against $75,523 in average yearly household income, roughly 24% of income at the averages. Renters make up 57% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

6.7

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 32% Stable renters 25% Owners 43%

Tract context

Occupied units1,203

Renter share57.1%

SVI overall0.80

Poverty rate7.6%

Median income$75,523

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Elizabeth and the region

Centroid at 40.6619, -74.2325 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elizabeth scores 6.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.8

State political climate

New Jersey legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

7.6% poverty · this tract

1.9

Supply constraint

$1,488 rent vs county FMR

2.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

7.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Elizabeth

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.0

How Elizabeth compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 80

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

82%Socioeconomic
93%Household composition
87%Racial/ethnic minority
31%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
34%Grade B
37%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

19.6%Housing insecurity
9.3%Utility-shutoff threat
21.3%Food insecurity
10.3%SNAP enrollment
10.0%Transit barriers
23.0%No health insurance
15.5%Frequent mental distress
26.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elizabeth

The heaviest input here is eviction process difficulty at 7.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Elizabeth eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Union County average of 6.6 and above the New Jersey statewide average of 6.6. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 80th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 19.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 34039032003

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34039032003?

Census tract 34039032003 in Elizabeth scores 6.7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 34039032003?

Median gross rent is $1,488/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 34039032003?

7.6% of residents in tract 34039032003 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,530.

How socially vulnerable is tract 34039032003?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 82th, household 93th, minority 87th, housing 31th.

What share of households in tract 34039032003 struggle to pay rent?

About 19.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 34039032003 compare to Elizabeth overall?

Tract 34039032003 scores 6.7/10, lower than the parent city of Elizabeth at 8.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Elizabeth eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 34039032003 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Elizabeth

Top eight tracts in Elizabeth ranked by composite eviction-risk score.