Within parent city
47
th percentile
Moderate
Census Tract · Ranked #3,797 of 84,120 nationally
Elizabeth Eviction Risk: High
Tract 34039031903 · Union County, NJ · pop 7,155
Tract 34039031903 sits in Elizabeth eviction risk, NJ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 9.1/10. It is home to 7,155 residents. Against the Union County average of 6.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.5 points.
Risk score
9.1
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 44%
Stable renters 40%
Owners 16%
Tract context
Occupied units2,727
Renter share83.9%
SVI overall0.92
Poverty rate15.0%
Median income$55,203
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
96
th percentile
Very High
Within state
92
th percentile
Very High
National
96
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Elizabeth and the region
Centroid at 40.6621, -74.2252 · click any tract to drill in
Why Elizabeth scores 9.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.8
State political climate
New Jersey legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
15.0% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$1,391 rent vs county FMR
1.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Elizabeth
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.0
How Elizabeth compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 92
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 79%Socioeconomic
- 75%Household composition
- 91%Racial/ethnic minority
- 96%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 81%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,186Total filings over 4 yrs
- 14.24%Avg annual filing rate
- 18.6%Peak (2013)
- 251Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 29% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 22.3%Housing insecurity
- 11.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 26.1%Food insecurity
- 14.9%SNAP enrollment
- 11.9%Transit barriers
- 25.2%No health insurance
- 15.9%Frequent mental distress
- 30.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Elizabeth
The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 8.9/10. 84% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.5/10. 52% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Union County average of 44.6%. The severe-burden share is 15%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10. Princeton eviction risk's Eviction Lab logged 1,186 filings here across 4 tracked years.
Food insecurity runs 26.1% against 17.8% nationally. Housing insecurity runs 22.3% against 14.2% nationally.
Filings peaked in 2013 at 18.6% of renter households. At $1,391 a month, rents run 9% under what the rest of Elizabeth commands. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.
In a typical year about 14.2% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 95% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 34039031903
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34039031903?
Census tract 34039031903 in Elizabeth scores 9.1/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 34039031903?
Median gross rent is $1,391/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 34039031903?
15.0% of residents in tract 34039031903 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,155.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 34039031903?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 92th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 75th, minority 91th, housing 96th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 34039031903?
Princeton eviction risk Eviction Lab recorded 1,186 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 34039031903 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.24% of renter households, peaking at 18.6% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 34039031903 struggle to pay rent?
About 22.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 34039031903 compare to Elizabeth overall?
Tract 34039031903 scores 9.1/10, higher than the parent city of Elizabeth at 7.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Elizabeth eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 34039031903 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Elizabeth
Top eight tracts in Elizabeth ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · NJ
Port Ivory
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
Port Ivory
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
Port Ivory
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
34039031700
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
Gulfport
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
34039030701
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
34039031802
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
34039031904
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
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