Census Tract · Ranked #5,153 of 84,120 nationally

Elizabeth Eviction Risk: High

Tract 34039031302 · Union County, NJ · pop 4,090

With a score of 8.6/10, tract 34039031302 in Elizabeth, NJ reads high for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,090 residents. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.9/10.

Risk score

8.6

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 36% Stable renters 32% Owners 32%

Tract context

Occupied units1,276

Renter share68.5%

SVI overall0.85

Poverty rate11.2%

Median income$71,875

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Elizabeth and the region

Centroid at 40.6697, -74.2015 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elizabeth scores 8.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.8

State political climate

New Jersey legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

11.2% poverty · this tract

2.8

Supply constraint

$1,857 rent vs county FMR

3.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

7.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Elizabeth

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.0

How Elizabeth compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 85

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

82%Socioeconomic
94%Household composition
91%Racial/ethnic minority
49%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
99%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

23.7%Housing insecurity
12.0%Utility-shutoff threat
25.7%Food insecurity
14.3%SNAP enrollment
12.2%Transit barriers
23.4%No health insurance
17.4%Frequent mental distress
27.1%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elizabeth

The severe-burden share is 23%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. It sits 2.0 points above the Union County average of 6.6.

This is renter territory: 69% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. 53% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Union County average of 44.6%. At $1,857 a month, rents run 22% over what the rest of Elizabeth commands.

On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10. Running hot, eviction-process difficulty reads 7.5/10.

Housing insecurity runs 23.7% against 14.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 25.7% against 17.8% nationally. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Union Co. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

Nationally it ranks #5,153 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the NJ average is 6.0, so this tract runs 2.6 points hotter.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 34039031302

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34039031302?

Census tract 34039031302 in Elizabeth scores 8.6/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 34039031302?

Median gross rent is $1,857/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 34039031302?

11.2% of residents in tract 34039031302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,090.

How socially vulnerable is tract 34039031302?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 85th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 82th, household 94th, minority 91th, housing 49th.

What share of households in tract 34039031302 struggle to pay rent?

About 23.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 34039031302 compare to Elizabeth overall?

Tract 34039031302 scores 8.6/10, higher than the parent city of Elizabeth at 7.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Elizabeth eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 34039031302 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Elizabeth

Top eight tracts in Elizabeth ranked by composite eviction-risk score.