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Census Tract · Ranked #3,797 of 84,120 nationally

Elizabeth Eviction Risk: High

Tract 34039030704 · Union County, NJ · pop 2,696

Tract 34039030704 sits in Elizabeth eviction risk, NJ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 9.1/10. Cost burden runs 30% here against 44.6% across Union County.

Risk score
9.1
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23% Stable renters 53% Owners 24%
Tract context
Occupied units1,027
Renter share75.2%
SVI overall0.89
Poverty rate16.8%
Median income$54,665

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
90 th percentile
Rank, 90th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 31 tracts In Elizabeth
Very High
Within county
87 th percentile
Rank, 87th percentileLowHigh
#17 of 120 tracts In Union County
High
Within state
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#166 of 2,175 tracts In New Jersey
Very High
National
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#3,797 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Elizabeth and the region

Centroid at 40.6580, -74.2174 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elizabeth scores 9.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.8
State political climate
New Jersey legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
16.8% poverty · this tract
4.2
Supply constraint
$1,765 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Elizabeth
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.0

How Elizabeth compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Elizabeth risk score vs. parent city / county / state9.1This tracttract 0307047.7Elizabethparent city6.6Countyavg tract in county6.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 89

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elizabeth

Against the Union County average of 6.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.5 points. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.9/10.

Annualized rent equals 39% of average household income of $54,665, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. 75% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Food insecurity runs 32.1% against 17.8% nationally. Housing insecurity runs 26.4% against 14.2% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10.

Running hot, eviction-process difficulty reads 7.5/10. At $1,765 a month, rents run 16% over what the rest of Elizabeth commands. Severe burden reaches 9%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Union Co. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. Nationally it ranks #3,797 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Social vulnerability reads 9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the NJ average is 6.0, so this tract runs 3.1 points hotter.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 34039030704

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34039030704?

Census tract 34039030704 in Elizabeth scores 9.1/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 34039030704?

Median gross rent is $1,765/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 34039030704?

16.8% of residents in tract 34039030704 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,696.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 34039030704?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 89th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 81th, household 98th, minority 91th, housing 58th.
Q5

What share of households in tract 34039030704 struggle to pay rent?

About 26.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6

How does tract 34039030704 compare to Elizabeth overall?

Tract 34039030704 scores 9.1/10, higher than the parent city of Elizabeth at 7.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Elizabeth eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q7

Was tract 34039030704 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Elizabeth

Top eight tracts in Elizabeth ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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