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Census Tract · Ranked #550 of 84,120 nationally

Elizabeth Eviction Risk: High

Tract 34039031904 · Union County, NJ · pop 3,008

For landlords sizing up Elizabeth, census tract 34039031904 carries an elevated eviction-risk score of 7.6/10. That is riskier than about 99% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 57% of renter households, a severe level, and 33% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,176 monthly, set against $36,995 in average yearly household income, roughly 38% of income at the averages. Renters make up 90% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
8.9
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 51% Stable renters 39% Owners 10%
Tract context
Occupied units1,589
Renter share90.0%
SVI overall0.95
Poverty rate29.3%
Median income$36,995

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 31 tracts In Elizabeth
Very High
Within county
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 120 tracts In Union County
Very High
Within state
97 th percentile
Rank, 97th percentileLowHigh
#67 of 2,175 tracts In New Jersey
Very High
National
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#550 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Elizabeth and the region

Centroid at 40.6649, -74.2219 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elizabeth scores 8.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.8
State political climate
New Jersey legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
29.3% poverty · this tract
7.3
Supply constraint
$1,176 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Elizabeth
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.0

How Elizabeth compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Elizabeth risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 8.98.9This tracttract 031904Elizabeth: 8.28.2Elizabethparent cityCounty: 4.74.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.34.3Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 95

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 761Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 16.06%Avg annual filing rate
  • 20.5%Peak (2013)
  • 159Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2013 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 340390319042013: 256 filings (20.46/100 renter HHs)2016: 173 filings (15.00/100 renter HHs)2017: 173 filings (15.00/100 renter HHs)2018: 159 filings (13.79/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 38% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elizabeth

The heaviest input here is eviction process difficulty at 7.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Elizabeth eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Union County average of 6.6 and above the New Jersey statewide average of 6.6. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 95th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 34039031904

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34039031904?

Census tract 34039031904 in Elizabeth scores 8.9/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 34039031904?

Median gross rent is $1,176/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 34039031904?

29.3% of residents in tract 34039031904 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,008.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 34039031904?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 95th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 95th, household 82th, minority 92th, housing 86th.
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 34039031904?

Princeton eviction risk Eviction Lab recorded 761 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 34039031904 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 16.06% of renter households, peaking at 20.5% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

What share of households in tract 34039031904 struggle to pay rent?

About 28.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 17.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 34039031904 compare to Elizabeth overall?

Tract 34039031904 scores 8.9/10, higher than the parent city of Elizabeth at 8.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Elizabeth eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 34039031904 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Elizabeth

Top eight tracts in Elizabeth ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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