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Census Tract · Ranked #3,797 of 84,120 nationally

Elizabeth Eviction Risk: High

Tract 34039031904 · Union County, NJ · pop 3,008

Census tract 34039031904 covers part of Elizabeth, NJ, and scores 9.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. The severe-burden share is 33%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
9.1
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 51% Stable renters 39% Owners 10%
Tract context
Occupied units1,589
Renter share90.0%
SVI overall0.95
Poverty rate29.3%
Median income$36,995

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#11 of 31 tracts In Elizabeth
Elevated
Within county
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#7 of 120 tracts In Union County
Very High
Within state
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#166 of 2,175 tracts In New Jersey
Very High
National
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#3,797 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Elizabeth and the region

Centroid at 40.6649, -74.2219 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elizabeth scores 9.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.8
State political climate
New Jersey legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
29.3% poverty · this tract
7.3
Supply constraint
$1,176 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Elizabeth
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.0

How Elizabeth compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Elizabeth risk score vs. parent city / county / state9.1This tracttract 0319047.7Elizabethparent city6.6Countyavg tract in county6.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 95

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 761Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 16.06%Avg annual filing rate
  • 20.5%Peak (2013)
  • 159Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2013 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 34039031904
Filings dropped 38% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elizabeth

Against the Union County average of 6.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.5 points. 90% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1/10.

Food insecurity runs 36.8% against 17.8% nationally. Set annual rent against average income of $36,995 and the ratio lands at 38%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. 57% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Union County average of 44.6%.

Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. The poverty rate is 29%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

Housing insecurity runs 28.7% against 14.2% nationally. At $1,176 a month, rents run 23% under what the rest of Elizabeth commands. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10.

Princeton eviction risk's Eviction Lab logged 761 filings here across 4 tracked years. The worst year on record was 2013, when 20.5% of renter households were served. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

In a typical year about 16.1% of renter households face a filing.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 34039031904

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34039031904?

Census tract 34039031904 in Elizabeth scores 9.1/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 34039031904?

Median gross rent is $1,176/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 34039031904?

29.3% of residents in tract 34039031904 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,008.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 34039031904?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 95th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 95th, household 82th, minority 92th, housing 86th.
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 34039031904?

Princeton eviction risk Eviction Lab recorded 761 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 34039031904 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 16.06% of renter households, peaking at 20.5% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

What share of households in tract 34039031904 struggle to pay rent?

About 28.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 17.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 34039031904 compare to Elizabeth overall?

Tract 34039031904 scores 9.1/10, higher than the parent city of Elizabeth at 7.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Elizabeth eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 34039031904 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Elizabeth

Top eight tracts in Elizabeth ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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