Neighborhood · Ranked #342 of 84,120 nationally

Kensington Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

Tract 36029004402 · Erie County, NY · pop 2,698 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Census tract 36029004402 runs through the Kensington area of Buffalo. With 2,698 residents, it scores 7.3/10 for landlords. It lands near the 97th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 51% of renter households, a severe level, and 17% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $565 monthly, set against $30,000 in average yearly household income, roughly 23% of income at the averages. Renters make up 87% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

9.1

High

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 45% Stable renters 42% Owners 13%

Tract context

Occupied units1,172

Renter share87.0%

SVI overall0.91

Poverty rate45.9%

Median income$30,000

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Buffalo and the region

Centroid at 42.9309, -78.8067 · click any tract to drill in

Why Kensington scores 9.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Buffalo

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

New York legislature & governorship

7.3

Economic stress

45.9% poverty · this tract

10.0

Supply constraint

$565 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

8.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

How Kensington compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 91

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

87%Socioeconomic
91%Household composition
92%Racial/ethnic minority
72%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
98%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Kensington. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

48.3%Housing insecurity
39.6%Utility-shutoff threat
61.2%Food insecurity
70.3%SNAP enrollment
33.3%Transit barriers
16.3%No health insurance
26.6%Frequent mental distress
45.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Kensington

The heaviest input here is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Erie County average of 6.1 and above the New York statewide average of 6.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

The tract is predominantly Black and ranks around the 91st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029004402

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029004402?

Census tract 36029004402 in the Kensington neighborhood scores 9.1/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 36029004402?

Median gross rent is $565/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029004402?

45.9% of residents in tract 36029004402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,698.

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029004402?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 87th, household 91th, minority 92th, housing 72th.

Is tract 36029004402 considered part of Kensington?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36029004402 fall within Kensington (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 36029004402 struggle to pay rent?

About 48.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 39.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 36029004402 compare to Buffalo overall?

Tract 36029004402 scores 9.1/10, lower than the parent city of Buffalo at 9.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 36029004402 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buffalo

Top eight tracts in Buffalo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.